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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Apr 30, 2010
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Apr 10857.00 11258.00 10844.00 11009.00 40% 45 28 25 89% 11258.00 11740.31 11009.00
#NDX Higher Apr 1958.30 2059.40 1944.00 2000.60 49% 24 13 13 100% 2059.40 2234.98 2000.60
#RUT Higher Apr 678.65 745.95 677.75 716.60 57% 31 20 17 85% 745.95 796.05 716.60
#MID Higher Apr 789.90 852.90 789.85 823.05 53% 29 19 17 89% 852.90 906.09 823.05
#VLE Higher Apr 2478.00 2697.40 2481.50 2600.50 55% 27 16 15 94% 2697.40 2862.90 2600.50
#SP Higher Apr 1169.45 1219.80 1170.70 1186.70 33% 45 31 27 87% 1219.80 1272.88 1186.70
SPU0 Higher Apr 1160.30 1210.60 1165.00 1178.80 30% 27 17 17 100% 1210.60 1264.74 1178.80
NDU0 Higher Apr 1953.30 2053.50 1949.50 1997.00 46% 13 8 8 100% 2053.50 2221.79 1997.00
USU0 Higher Apr 114~30 118~04 113~06 118~03 99% 32 13 12 92% 118~04 124~27 118~03
TYU0 Higher Apr 114~260 116~210 113~150 116~200 99% 27 11 10 91% 116~210 120~258 116~200
EDU0 Lower Apr 99.465 99.550 99.360 99.390 16% 28 11 11 100% 99.360 98.915 99.390
CDU0 Lower Apr 98.43 100.55 97.83 98.27 16% 33 12 11 92% 97.83 96.43 98.27
ADU0 Higher Apr 89.97 92.07 89.83 91.07 55% 23 16 15 94% 92.07 95.80 91.07
DXU0 Higher Apr 81.585 83.060 80.510 82.265 69% 24 8 7 88% 83.060 85.262 82.265
SIN0 Higher Apr 1755.3 1879.0 1751.0 1863.9 88% 45 15 13 87% 1879.0 2048.5 1863.9
CLQ0 Higher Apr 84.84 89.88 84.45 89.68 96% 27 16 14 88% 89.88 98.39 89.68
CLU0 Higher Apr 85.03 90.51 84.66 90.41 98% 27 17 15 88% 90.51 98.08 90.41
RBU0 Higher Apr 227.00 239.79 226.00 239.35 97% 25 19 16 84% 239.79 262.26 239.35
NGU0 Higher Apr 4.213 4.680 4.170 4.215 9% 19 11 10 91% 4.680 5.250 4.215
CZ0 Higher Apr 376.25 394.75 367.25 392.25 91% 45 20 17 85% 394.75 443.84 392.25
ON0 Lower Apr 217.00 226.25 201.25 213.75 50% 35 15 13 87% 201.25 180.73 213.75
PBN0 Lower Apr 100.000 101.400 94.000 98.600 62% 45 23 21 91% 94.000 76.657 98.600
SBN0 Lower Apr 16.51 17.85 14.81 15.15 11% 45 26 22 85% 14.81 12.44 15.15
LBU0 Higher Apr 294.7 336.6 294.2 313.8 46% 37 13 11 85% 336.6 373.7 313.8


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10857.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 11009.00(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 10844.00(Month Low) to 11258.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 11258.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 11740.31(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1958.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2000.60(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 1944.00(Month Low) to 2059.40(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2059.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2234.98(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 678.65(Prev Close), the market ended April at 716.60(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 677.75(Month Low) to 745.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #RUT went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 745.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 796.05(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 789.90(Prev Close), the market ended April at 823.05(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 789.85(Month Low) to 852.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 852.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 906.09(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2478.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2600.50(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 2481.50(Month Low) to 2697.40(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2697.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2862.90(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1169.45(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1186.70(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 1170.70(Month Low) to 1219.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1219.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 1272.88(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1160.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1178.80(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 1165.00(Month Low) to 1210.60(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1210.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1264.74(Average Objective).

September NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1953.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1997.00(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 1949.50(Month Low) to 2053.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should exceed 2053.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2221.79(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 114~30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 118~03(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 113~06(Month Low) to 118~04(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 118~04(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 124~27(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 114~260(Prev Close), the market ended April at 116~200(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 113~150(Month Low) to 116~210(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 116~210(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 120~258(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.465(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.390(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 99.360(Month Low) to 99.550(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.360(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 98.915(Average Objective).

September Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 98.43(Prev Close), the market ended April at 98.27(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 97.83(Month Low) to 100.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should penetrate 97.83(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 96.43(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 89.97(Prev Close), the market ended April at 91.07(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 89.83(Month Low) to 92.07(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 92.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 95.80(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 81.585(Prev Close), the market ended April at 82.265(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 80.510(Month Low) to 83.060(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, DXU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 83.060(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 85.262(Average Objective).

July Silver(CMX)
The SIN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1755.3(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1863.9(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 1751.0(Month Low) to 1879.0(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Silver(CMX) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SIN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIN should exceed 1879.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2048.5(Average Objective).

August Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLQ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 84.84(Prev Close), the market ended April at 89.68(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 84.45(Month Low) to 89.88(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 89.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 98.39(Average Objective).

September Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 85.03(Prev Close), the market ended April at 90.41(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 84.66(Month Low) to 90.51(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 90.51(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 98.08(Average Objective).

September Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 227.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 239.35(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 226.00(Month Low) to 239.79(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 239.79(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 262.26(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.213(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.215(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 4.170(Month Low) to 4.680(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 4.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 5.250(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 376.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 392.25(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 367.25(Month Low) to 394.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 394.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 443.84(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 217.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 213.75(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 201.25(Month Low) to 226.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 201.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 180.73(Average Objective).

July Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 100.000(Prev Close), the market ended April at 98.600(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 94.000(Month Low) to 101.400(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Pork Bellies(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, PBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBN should penetrate 94.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 76.657(Average Objective).

July Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 16.51(Prev Close), the market ended April at 15.15(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 14.81(Month Low) to 17.85(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 14.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 12.44(Average Objective).

September Lumber(CME)
The LBU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 294.7(Prev Close), the market ended April at 313.8(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 294.2(Month Low) to 336.6(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should exceed 336.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 373.7(Average Objective).