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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2009
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#NDX Higher Aug 1603.40 1668.00 1563.10 1625.20 59% 23 14 12 86% 1668.00 1776.79 1625.20
#RUT Higher Aug 556.70 589.80 546.95 572.05 59% 30 18 16 89% 589.80 615.34 572.05
NDZ9 Higher Aug 1599.80 1658.00 1562.50 1622.80 63% 13 7 6 86% 1658.00 1788.58 1622.80
USZ9 Higher Aug 117~24 119~31 113~17 119~12 91% 31 20 19 95% 119~31 124~27 119~12
TYZ9 Higher Aug 115~265 117~300 113~065 117~070 85% 27 19 18 95% 117~300 121~144 117~070
EDZ9 Higher Aug 99.290 99.550 99.160 99.540 97% 27 20 18 90% 99.550 100.199 99.540
EDH0 Higher Aug 99.015 99.295 98.730 99.285 98% 27 18 18 100% 99.295 99.941 99.285
SFZ9 Higher Aug 93.73 95.07 92.02 94.47 80% 34 17 15 88% 95.07 100.11 94.47
ADZ9 Higher Aug 82.62 83.99 80.77 83.59 88% 22 12 11 92% 83.99 86.61 83.59
DXZ9 Lower Aug 78.770 79.920 77.835 78.520 33% 23 14 13 93% 77.835 75.091 78.520
NGZ9 Lower Aug 5.358 5.860 4.788 4.832 4% 19 8 8 100% 4.788 4.258 4.832
NGF0 Lower Aug 5.643 6.127 5.090 5.128 4% 19 9 8 89% 5.090 4.582 5.128
SBH0 Higher Aug 19.78 25.90 19.80 25.82 99% 45 18 17 94% 25.90 29.06 25.82
CCH0 Lower Aug 2942 3039 2725 2815 29% 45 19 16 84% 2725 2495 2815


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1603.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1625.20(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 1563.10(Month Low) to 1668.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1668.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1776.79(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 556.70(Prev Close), the market ended August at 572.05(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 546.95(Month Low) to 589.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #RUT went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 589.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 615.34(Average Objective).

December NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1599.80(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1622.80(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 1562.50(Month Low) to 1658.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should exceed 1658.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 1788.58(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 117~24(Prev Close), the market ended August at 119~12(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 113~17(Month Low) to 119~31(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 119~31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 124~27(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 115~265(Prev Close), the market ended August at 117~070(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 113~065(Month Low) to 117~300(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 117~300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 121~144(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.290(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.540(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 99.160(Month Low) to 99.550(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 100.199(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.015(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.285(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 98.730(Month Low) to 99.295(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.295(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 99.941(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 93.73(Prev Close), the market ended August at 94.47(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 92.02(Month Low) to 95.07(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SFZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 95.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 100.11(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 82.62(Prev Close), the market ended August at 83.59(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 80.77(Month Low) to 83.99(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, ADZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 83.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 86.61(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 78.770(Prev Close), the market ended August at 78.520(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 77.835(Month Low) to 79.920(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, DXZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 77.835(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 75.091(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5.358(Prev Close), the market ended August at 4.832(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 4.788(Month Low) to 5.860(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 4.788(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 4.258(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5.643(Prev Close), the market ended August at 5.128(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 5.090(Month Low) to 6.127(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 5.090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 4.582(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 19.78(Prev Close), the market ended August at 25.82(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 19.80(Month Low) to 25.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 25.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 29.06(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2942(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2815(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 2725(Month Low) to 3039(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2725(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2495(Average Objective).