MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 31, 2009

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#SP

Lower

Jan

903.25

943.85

804.30

825.90

15%

88%

804.30

763.48

825.45

SPM9

Lower

Jan

897.60

937.00

802.20

819.00

12%

88%

802.20

762.69

818.00

SFM9

Lower

Jan

93.89

94.20

86.24

91%

86.24

82.69

86.24

PLJ9

Higher

Jan

941.5

1005.5

922.2

991.3

83%

96%

1005.5

1102.2

979.1

PAM9

Higher

Jan

189.70

201.55

180.65

194.40

66%

84%

201.55

234.58

199.35

HGK9

Higher

Jan

142.05

163.80

138.50

148.30

39%

93%

163.80

184.19

144.50

HGN9

Higher

Jan

142.70

164.40

142.00

149.40

33%

92%

164.40

182.92

145.65

RBK9

Higher

Jan

128.60

143.94

120.50

136.42

68%

87%

143.94

160.06

125.67

CK9

Lower

Jan

417.75

438.00

369.75

390.00

30%

95%

369.75

351.16

381.75

CN9

Lower

Jan

428.00

448.00

380.00

401.25

31%

96%

380.00

362.25

392.50

CU9

Lower

Jan

438.00

457.75

392.00

411.75

30%

100%

392.00

376.44

402.75

WK9

Lower

Jan

623.50

657.00

562.75

580.75

19%

88%

562.75

522.95

576.75

WN9

Lower

Jan

634.00

668.00

574.00

592.75

20%

88%

574.00

539.33

588.75

WU9

Lower

Jan

653.50

686.50

596.50

615.50

21%

88%

596.50

562.80

612.75

KWK9

Lower

Jan

641.25

681.00

590.75

612.25

24%

93%

590.75

561.96

604.50

KWN9

Lower

Jan

652.75

692.00

600.25

623.50

25%

93%

600.25

568.21

615.75

KWU9

Lower

Jan

663.00

702.25

610.75

634.00

25%

93%

610.75

579.39

625.75

MWK9

Lower

Jan

658.25

715.50

625.00

646.00

23%

93%

625.00

601.89

639.25

MWN9

Lower

Jan

664.25

699.00

627.25

645.00

25%

86%

627.25

606.84

635.25

OK9

Lower

Jan

219.25

239.50

215.00

90%

215.00

196.11

202.50

ON9

Lower

Jan

228.75

249.00

224.50

86%

224.50

207.40

212.00

RRK9

Lower

Jan

15.46

11.81

12.00

90%

11.81

10.54

12.32

CCK9

Higher

Jan

2657

2845

2350

2779

87%

100%

2845

3126

2726

CCN9

Higher

Jan

2646

2810

2353

2764

90%

93%

2810

3077

2718

CCU9

Higher

Jan

2623

2800

2330

2745

88%

93%

2800

3063

2700

LBN9

Lower

Jan

212.6

212.2

167.0

179.8

28%

93%

167.0

156.2

188.0

LBU9

Lower

Jan

219.0

218.6

170.2

176.2

12%

86%

170.2

160.1

182.5

S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 903.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 825.90(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 804.30(Month Low) to 943.85(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed lower in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #SP went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 804.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 763.48(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 897.60(Prev Close), the market ended January at 819.00(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 802.20(Month Low) to 937.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, SPM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should penetrate 802.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 762.69(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.89(Prev Close), the market ended January at 86.24(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 86.24(Month Low) to 94.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SFM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 86.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 82.69(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 941.5(Prev Close), the market ended January at 991.3(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 922.2(Month Low) to 1005.5(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1005.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1102.2(Average Objective).
June Palladium(NYMEX): The PAM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 189.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 194.40(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 180.65(Month Low) to 201.55(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, PAM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAM should exceed 201.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 234.58(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 142.05(Prev Close), the market ended January at 148.30(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 138.50(Month Low) to 163.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 163.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 184.19(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 142.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 149.40(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 142.00(Month Low) to 164.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 164.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 182.92(Average Objective).
May Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 128.60(Prev Close), the market ended January at 136.42(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 120.50(Month Low) to 143.94(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 143.94(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 160.06(Average Objective).
May Corn(CBOT): The CK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 417.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 390.00(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 369.75(Month Low) to 438.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should penetrate 369.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 351.16(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 428.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 401.25(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 380.00(Month Low) to 448.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 380.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 362.25(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 438.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 411.75(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 392.00(Month Low) to 457.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 392.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 376.44(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 623.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 580.75(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 562.75(Month Low) to 657.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 562.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 522.95(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 634.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 592.75(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 574.00(Month Low) to 668.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 574.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 539.33(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 653.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 615.50(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 596.50(Month Low) to 686.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 596.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 562.80(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 641.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 612.25(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 590.75(Month Low) to 681.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 590.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 561.96(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 652.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 623.50(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 600.25(Month Low) to 692.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KWN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 600.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 568.21(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 663.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 634.00(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 610.75(Month Low) to 702.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KWU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 610.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 579.39(Average Objective).
May Wheat(MGE): The MWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 658.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 646.00(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 625.00(Month Low) to 715.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, MWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWK should penetrate 625.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 601.89(Average Objective).
July Wheat(MGE): The MWN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 664.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 645.00(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 627.25(Month Low) to 699.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, MWN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWN should penetrate 627.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 606.84(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 219.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 215.00(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 215.00(Month Low) to 239.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, OK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should penetrate 215.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 196.11(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 228.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 224.50(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 224.50(Month Low) to 249.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, ON went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 224.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 207.40(Average Objective).
May Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 15.46(Prev Close), the market ended January at 12.00(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 11.81(Month Low) to 15.46(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 11.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 10.54(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2657(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2779(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 2350(Month Low) to 2845(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2845(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3126(Average Objective).
July Cocoa(ICE): The CCN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2646(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2764(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2353(Month Low) to 2810(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should exceed 2810(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3077(Average Objective).
September Cocoa(ICE): The CCU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2623(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2745(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 2330(Month Low) to 2800(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should exceed 2800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3063(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 212.6(Prev Close), the market ended January at 179.8(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 167.0(Month Low) to 212.2(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 167.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 156.2(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 219.0(Prev Close), the market ended January at 176.2(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 170.2(Month Low) to 218.6(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LBU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 170.2(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 160.1(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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