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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Sep 30, 2008
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
JYZ8 Higher Sep 92.50 97.03 92.18 94.98 58% 31 16 14 88% 97.03 102.20 94.98
DXZ8 Higher Sep 77.950 80.900 76.025 79.395 69% 22 8 8 100% 80.900 82.889 79.395
HOF9 Lower Sep 327.49 316.11 273.18 294.87 51% 29 9 8 89% 273.18 255.04 294.87
NGG9 Lower Sep 9.038 8.850 7.930 8.055 14% 18 7 6 86% 7.930 7.272 8.055
SF9 Lower Sep 1341.50 1315.50 1058.00 1062.25 2% 45 25 21 84% 1058.00 994.30 1062.25
BOZ8 Lower Sep 54.20 52.88 43.55 44.48 10% 45 25 23 92% 43.55 40.57 44.48
BOF9 Lower Sep 54.72 53.35 44.30 45.00 8% 45 24 21 88% 44.30 41.16 45.00
SMZ8 Lower Sep 358.00 355.80 283.50 285.00 2% 45 25 21 84% 283.50 268.93 285.00
MWZ8 Lower Sep 864.50 864.50 743.50 746.75 3% 27 13 11 85% 743.50 703.20 746.75
MWH9 Lower Sep 879.75 877.00 761.00 761.75 1% 27 14 12 86% 761.00 722.63 761.75
OZ8 Lower Sep 362.25 360.25 316.00 316.00 0% 34 14 13 93% 316.00 294.95 316.00
LCV8 Lower Sep 104.050 104.550 98.000 98.900 14% 43 18 16 89% 98.000 90.527 98.900
LCZ8 Lower Sep 106.400 106.550 99.800 100.385 9% 43 18 16 89% 99.800 95.031 100.385
LEZ8 Lower Sep 69.550 70.600 64.000 64.200 3% 39 15 14 93% 64.000 58.250 64.200
LEG9 Lower Sep 75.950 77.350 69.950 70.650 9% 39 14 12 86% 69.950 64.867 70.650
PBG9 Higher Sep 92.950 100.230 83.450 93.750 61% 43 25 21 84% 100.230 110.356 93.750
PBH9 Higher Sep 93.000 99.300 84.950 93.200 57% 44 26 22 85% 99.300 108.648 93.200
CCH9 Lower Sep 2884 2806 2499 2573 24% 45 21 18 86% 2499 2296 2573
CCK9 Lower Sep 2868 2800 2500 2578 26% 45 21 18 86% 2500 2301 2578
LBX8 Lower Sep 240.4 244.0 201.5 203.5 5% 35 25 21 84% 201.5 187.5 203.5
CTH9 Lower Sep 74.38 74.87 59.80 62.14 16% 45 27 24 89% 59.80 56.39 62.14


December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 92.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 94.98(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 92.18(Month Low) to 97.03(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, JYZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 97.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 102.20(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 77.950(Prev Close), the market ended September at 79.395(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 76.025(Month Low) to 80.900(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, DXZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 80.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 82.889(Average Objective).

January Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOF9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 327.49(Prev Close), the market ended September at 294.87(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 273.18(Month Low) to 316.11(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, HOF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should penetrate 273.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 255.04(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 9.038(Prev Close), the market ended September at 8.055(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 7.930(Month Low) to 8.850(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NGG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 7.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 7.272(Average Objective).

January Soybeans(CBOT)
The SF9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1341.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 1062.25(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 1058.00(Month Low) to 1315.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should penetrate 1058.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 994.30(Average Objective).

December Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 54.20(Prev Close), the market ended September at 44.48(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 43.55(Month Low) to 52.88(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 43.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 40.57(Average Objective).

January Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOF9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 54.72(Prev Close), the market ended September at 45.00(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 44.30(Month Low) to 53.35(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should penetrate 44.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 41.16(Average Objective).

December Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 358.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 285.00(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 283.50(Month Low) to 355.80(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SMZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 283.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 268.93(Average Objective).

December Wheat(MGE)
The MWZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 864.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 746.75(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 743.50(Month Low) to 864.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, MWZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWZ should penetrate 743.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 703.20(Average Objective).

March Wheat(MGE)
The MWH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 879.75(Prev Close), the market ended September at 761.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 761.00(Month Low) to 877.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in September than August in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, MWH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWH should penetrate 761.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 722.63(Average Objective).

December Oats(CBOT)
The OZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 362.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 316.00(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 316.00(Month Low) to 360.25(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, OZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 316.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 294.95(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 104.050(Prev Close), the market ended September at 98.900(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 98.000(Month Low) to 104.550(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LCV went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should penetrate 98.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 90.527(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 106.400(Prev Close), the market ended September at 100.385(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 99.800(Month Low) to 106.550(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LCZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should penetrate 99.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 95.031(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 69.550(Prev Close), the market ended September at 64.200(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 64.000(Month Low) to 70.600(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LEZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 64.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 58.250(Average Objective).

February Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 75.950(Prev Close), the market ended September at 70.650(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 69.950(Month Low) to 77.350(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LEG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEG should penetrate 69.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 64.867(Average Objective).

February Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBG9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 92.950(Prev Close), the market ended September at 93.750(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 83.450(Month Low) to 100.230(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, PBG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should exceed 100.230(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 110.356(Average Objective).

March Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 93.000(Prev Close), the market ended September at 93.200(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 84.950(Month Low) to 99.300(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, PBH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBH should exceed 99.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 108.648(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2884(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2573(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 2499(Month Low) to 2806(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CCH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2499(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2296(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2868(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2578(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 2500(Month Low) to 2800(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CCK went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should penetrate 2500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2301(Average Objective).

November Lumber(CME)
The LBX8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 240.4(Prev Close), the market ended September at 203.5(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 201.5(Month Low) to 244.0(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LBX went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 201.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 187.5(Average Objective).

March Cotton(ICE)
The CTH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 74.38(Prev Close), the market ended September at 62.14(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 59.80(Month Low) to 74.87(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CTH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 59.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 56.39(Average Objective).