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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Jan 31, 2007
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Jan 12463.00 12657.00 12337.00 12622.00 89% 45 30 27 90% 12657.00 13318.64 12622.00
#TRAN Higher Jan 4560.20 4921.40 4564.60 4916.80 99% 35 22 20 91% 4921.40 5308.94 4916.80
#OEX Higher Jan 660.40 670.00 654.35 667.00 81% 23 15 13 87% 670.00 702.73 667.00
#MID Higher Jan 804.35 834.80 796.65 833.00 95% 25 16 15 94% 834.80 877.34 833.00
#VLE Higher Jan 2216.70 2279.00 2185.90 2273.70 94% 23 15 14 93% 2279.00 2406.02 2273.70
#SSNI Higher Jan 17226 17618 16758 17383 73% 24 15 13 87% 17618 18799 17383
#SP Higher Jan 1418.30 1441.60 1403.95 1438.25 91% 45 28 26 93% 1441.60 1512.39 1438.25
SPM7 Higher Jan 1441.10 1459.40 1426.10 1456.20 90% 24 17 15 88% 1459.40 1541.94 1456.20
EDM7 Lower Jan 94.770 94.915 94.635 94.655 7% 24 10 9 90% 94.635 94.319 94.655
EDU7 Lower Jan 94.915 95.090 94.685 94.745 15% 24 11 10 91% 94.685 94.285 94.745
SFM7 Lower Jan 83.17 83.64 80.73 81.35 21% 31 21 19 90% 80.73 77.24 81.35
JYM7 Lower Jan 85.82 86.15 83.56 84.36 31% 30 20 17 85% 83.56 80.28 84.36
PLJ7 Higher Jan 1144.3 1189.0 1112.0 1182.3 91% 38 21 20 95% 1189.0 1291.7 1182.3
NGK7 Higher Jan 6.703 7.890 6.460 7.690 86% 16 7 7 100% 7.890 9.206 7.690
NGM7 Higher Jan 6.813 7.850 6.570 7.766 93% 16 7 7 100% 7.850 9.093 7.766
WK7 Lower Jan 508.00 501.75 458.50 481.00 52% 45 26 23 88% 458.50 427.41 481.00
WN7 Lower Jan 497.50 501.00 460.50 488.00 68% 45 25 22 88% 460.50 433.71 488.00
KWK7 Lower Jan 517.00 517.50 475.50 497.50 52% 30 14 13 93% 475.50 454.53 497.50
KWN7 Lower Jan 509.75 511.75 472.00 501.50 74% 30 13 12 92% 472.00 448.48 501.50
MWH7 Lower Jan 518.50 512.00 469.00 495.25 61% 26 10 10 100% 469.00 448.80 495.25
MWK7 Lower Jan 526.00 521.00 478.25 508.00 70% 26 13 13 100% 478.25 460.08 508.00
OK7 Lower Jan 277.00 282.50 254.50 266.75 44% 32 19 17 89% 254.50 231.27 266.75
ON7 Lower Jan 281.00 286.00 262.00 273.75 49% 32 20 17 85% 262.00 241.52 273.75
RRK7 Lower Jan 10.65 10.95 10.40 10.42 3% 20 9 8 89% 10.40 9.23 10.42
RRN7 Lower Jan 10.79 11.05 10.67 10.68 3% 17 9 8 89% 10.67 9.52 10.68
KCK7 Lower Jan 129.20 128.50 118.50 120.90 24% 33 18 17 94% 118.50 109.79 120.90
KCN7 Lower Jan 132.00 130.90 121.50 123.85 25% 33 16 15 94% 121.50 112.54 123.85


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 12463.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 12622.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 12337.00(Month Low) to 12657.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12657.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 13318.64(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4560.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4916.80(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 4564.60(Month Low) to 4921.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4921.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 5308.94(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 660.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 667.00(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 654.35(Month Low) to 670.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #OEX went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 670.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 702.73(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 804.35(Prev Close), the market ended January at 833.00(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 796.65(Month Low) to 834.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 834.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 877.34(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2216.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2273.70(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 2185.90(Month Low) to 2279.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2279.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2406.02(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 17226(Prev Close), the market ended January at 17383(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 16758(Month Low) to 17618(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #SSNI went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 17618(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 18799(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1418.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1438.25(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1403.95(Month Low) to 1441.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1441.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1512.39(Average Objective).

June S & P 500(CME)
The SPM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1441.10(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1456.20(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1426.10(Month Low) to 1459.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SPM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1459.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1541.94(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 94.770(Prev Close), the market ended January at 94.655(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 94.635(Month Low) to 94.915(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EDM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 94.635(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 94.319(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 94.915(Prev Close), the market ended January at 94.745(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 94.685(Month Low) to 95.090(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 94.685(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 94.285(Average Objective).

June Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 83.17(Prev Close), the market ended January at 81.35(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 80.73(Month Low) to 83.64(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SFM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 80.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 77.24(Average Objective).

June Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 85.82(Prev Close), the market ended January at 84.36(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 83.56(Month Low) to 86.15(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JYM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 83.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 80.28(Average Objective).

April Platinum(NYM)
The PLJ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1144.3(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1182.3(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1112.0(Month Low) to 1189.0(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1189.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1291.7(Average Objective).

May Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 6.703(Prev Close), the market ended January at 7.690(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 6.460(Month Low) to 7.890(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 7.890(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 9.206(Average Objective).

June Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 6.813(Prev Close), the market ended January at 7.766(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 6.570(Month Low) to 7.850(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NGM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 7.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 9.093(Average Objective).

May Wheat(CBOT)
The WK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 508.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 481.00(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 458.50(Month Low) to 501.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 458.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 427.41(Average Objective).

July Wheat(CBOT)
The WN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 497.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 488.00(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 460.50(Month Low) to 501.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 460.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 433.71(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 517.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 497.50(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 475.50(Month Low) to 517.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 475.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 454.53(Average Objective).

July Wheat(KCBT)
The KWN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 509.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 501.50(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 472.00(Month Low) to 511.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KWN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 472.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 448.48(Average Objective).

March Wheat(MGE)
The MWH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 518.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 495.25(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 469.00(Month Low) to 512.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, MWH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWH should penetrate 469.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 448.80(Average Objective).

May Wheat(MGE)
The MWK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 526.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 508.00(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 478.25(Month Low) to 521.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, MWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWK should penetrate 478.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 460.08(Average Objective).

May Oats(CBOT)
The OK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 277.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 266.75(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 254.50(Month Low) to 282.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, OK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should penetrate 254.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 231.27(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 281.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 273.75(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 262.00(Month Low) to 286.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, ON went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 262.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 241.52(Average Objective).

May Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 10.65(Prev Close), the market ended January at 10.42(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 10.40(Month Low) to 10.95(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 10.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 9.23(Average Objective).

July Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 10.79(Prev Close), the market ended January at 10.68(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 10.67(Month Low) to 11.05(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 10.67(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 9.52(Average Objective).

May Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
The KCK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 129.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 120.90(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 118.50(Month Low) to 128.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KCK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 118.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 109.79(Average Objective).

July Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
The KCN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 132.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 123.85(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 121.50(Month Low) to 130.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KCN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 121.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 112.54(Average Objective).