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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2006
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Nov 12081.00 12361.00 11965.00 12222.00 65% 45 29 26 90% 12361.00 13035.28 12222.00
#TRAN Higher Nov 4726.60 4891.10 4593.40 4727.50 45% 36 26 23 88% 4891.10 5310.20 4727.50
#UTIL Higher Nov 448.29 456.46 440.32 455.87 96% 36 20 17 85% 456.46 484.83 455.87
#OEX Higher Nov 640.35 654.85 634.30 649.70 75% 23 16 16 100% 654.85 689.09 649.70
#NDX Higher Nov 1732.50 1824.20 1693.20 1791.30 75% 20 13 13 100% 1824.20 2012.38 1791.30
#RUT Higher Nov 766.85 795.15 746.30 786.10 81% 27 18 17 94% 795.15 846.98 786.10
#MID Higher Nov 785.00 812.80 769.70 809.20 92% 25 17 16 94% 812.80 858.76 809.20
#VLE Higher Nov 2138.60 2215.50 2099.50 2201.00 88% 23 16 16 100% 2215.50 2334.54 2201.00
#SP Higher Nov 1377.95 1407.90 1361.00 1400.65 85% 45 30 27 90% 1407.90 1485.04 1400.65
SPH7 Higher Nov 1394.90 1423.00 1380.10 1414.80 81% 24 17 17 100% 1423.00 1491.74 1414.80
NDH7 Higher Nov 1763.80 1846.50 1734.80 1816.30 73% 10 9 9 100% 1846.50 2018.45 1816.30
USH7 Higher Nov 112~20 114~14 111~13 114~12 98% 29 21 18 86% 114~14 118~17 114~12
TYH7 Higher Nov 108~100 109~070 107~125 109~060 98% 24 12 12 100% 109~070 111~227 109~060
EDM7 Higher Nov 94.950 95.040 94.780 95.025 94% 24 11 10 91% 95.040 95.717 95.025
BPH7 Higher Nov 190.90 197.03 188.58 196.70 96% 31 14 12 86% 197.03 204.33 196.70
DXH7 Lower Nov 84.80 85.37 82.40 82.54 5% 20 10 9 90% 82.40 78.54 82.54
GCJ7 Higher Nov 618.7 660.5 625.0 659.2 96% 31 15 13 87% 660.5 695.9 659.2
PAH7 Higher Nov 327.95 343.90 320.00 334.35 60% 28 14 12 86% 343.90 405.44 334.35
NGH7 Higher Nov 7.938 8.825 7.800 8.744 92% 16 4 4 100% 8.825 11.689 8.744
NGJ7 Higher Nov 7.458 8.340 7.440 8.309 97% 16 4 4 100% 8.340 10.568 8.309
KWH7 Higher Nov 530.00 553.50 517.00 550.25 91% 30 15 13 87% 553.50 579.67 550.25
KWK7 Higher Nov 517.00 552.00 513.50 546.50 86% 30 13 11 85% 552.00 579.03 546.50
LCJ7 Higher Nov 90.175 91.725 88.650 90.300 54% 39 25 22 88% 91.725 96.749 90.300
LEM7 Higher Nov 73.100 75.250 71.850 74.850 88% 37 27 23 85% 75.250 80.229 74.850
LBH7 Higher Nov 282.2 295.0 277.2 288.7 65% 33 24 21 88% 295.0 323.5 288.7


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 12081.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 12222.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 11965.00(Month Low) to 12361.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12361.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 13035.28(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4726.60(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4727.50(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 4593.40(Month Low) to 4891.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4891.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 5310.20(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 448.29(Prev Close), the market ended November at 455.87(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 440.32(Month Low) to 456.46(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #UTIL went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 456.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 484.83(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 640.35(Prev Close), the market ended November at 649.70(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 634.30(Month Low) to 654.85(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in November than October in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #OEX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 654.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 689.09(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1732.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1791.30(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 1693.20(Month Low) to 1824.20(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #NDX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1824.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2012.38(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 766.85(Prev Close), the market ended November at 786.10(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 746.30(Month Low) to 795.15(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #RUT went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 795.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 846.98(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 785.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 809.20(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 769.70(Month Low) to 812.80(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 812.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 858.76(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2138.60(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2201.00(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 2099.50(Month Low) to 2215.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2215.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2334.54(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1377.95(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1400.65(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 1361.00(Month Low) to 1407.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1407.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 1485.04(Average Objective).

March S & P 500(CME)
The SPH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1394.90(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1414.80(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1380.10(Month Low) to 1423.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1423.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1491.74(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1763.80(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1816.30(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 1734.80(Month Low) to 1846.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 10 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 1846.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 2018.45(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 112~20(Prev Close), the market ended November at 114~12(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 111~13(Month Low) to 114~14(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 114~14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 118~17(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 108~100(Prev Close), the market ended November at 109~060(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 107~125(Month Low) to 109~070(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 109~070(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 111~227(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 94.950(Prev Close), the market ended November at 95.025(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 94.780(Month Low) to 95.040(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 95.040(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 95.717(Average Objective).

March British Pound(CME)
The BPH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 190.90(Prev Close), the market ended November at 196.70(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 188.58(Month Low) to 197.03(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, BPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should exceed 197.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 204.33(Average Objective).

March US Dollar Index(NYBOT)
The DXH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 84.80(Prev Close), the market ended November at 82.54(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 82.40(Month Low) to 85.37(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March US Dollar Index(NYBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, DXH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXH should penetrate 82.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 78.54(Average Objective).

April Gold(CMX)
The GCJ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 618.7(Prev Close), the market ended November at 659.2(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 625.0(Month Low) to 660.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, GCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 660.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 695.9(Average Objective).

March Palladium(NYME)
The PAH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 327.95(Prev Close), the market ended November at 334.35(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 320.00(Month Low) to 343.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYME) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, PAH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 343.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 405.44(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 7.938(Prev Close), the market ended November at 8.744(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 7.800(Month Low) to 8.825(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, NGH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should exceed 8.825(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 11.689(Average Objective).

April Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGJ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 7.458(Prev Close), the market ended November at 8.309(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 7.440(Month Low) to 8.340(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, NGJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should exceed 8.340(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 10.568(Average Objective).

March Wheat(KCBT)
The KWH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 530.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 550.25(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 517.00(Month Low) to 553.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KWH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should exceed 553.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 579.67(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 517.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 546.50(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 513.50(Month Low) to 552.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KWK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should exceed 552.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 579.03(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 90.175(Prev Close), the market ended November at 90.300(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 88.650(Month Low) to 91.725(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 91.725(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 96.749(Average Objective).

June Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 73.100(Prev Close), the market ended November at 74.850(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 71.850(Month Low) to 75.250(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LEM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 75.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 80.229(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 282.2(Prev Close), the market ended November at 288.7(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 277.2(Month Low) to 295.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LBH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 295.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 323.5(Average Objective).