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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2006
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 11679.00 12167.00 11656.00 12081.00 83% 45 26 24 92% 12167.00 12815.43 12081.00
#TRAN Higher Oct 4453.50 4818.40 4416.00 4726.60 77% 36 25 23 92% 4818.40 5180.48 4726.60
#UTIL Higher Oct 428.40 454.39 426.84 448.29 78% 36 22 20 91% 454.39 476.55 448.29
#OEX Higher Oct 620.00 645.60 617.70 640.35 81% 23 14 12 86% 645.60 690.13 640.35
#NDX Higher Oct 1654.10 1745.80 1623.10 1732.50 89% 20 13 13 100% 1745.80 1941.09 1732.50
#RUT Higher Oct 725.60 776.00 712.15 766.85 86% 27 14 13 93% 776.00 838.88 766.85
#MID Higher Oct 754.25 796.55 744.10 785.00 78% 25 16 14 88% 796.55 851.77 785.00
#VLE Higher Oct 2044.70 2161.10 2019.10 2138.60 84% 23 14 12 86% 2161.10 2304.14 2138.60
#SP Higher Oct 1335.85 1389.45 1327.10 1377.95 82% 45 28 26 93% 1389.45 1466.40 1377.95
SPH7 Higher Oct 1356.50 1404.70 1349.00 1394.90 82% 24 15 13 87% 1404.70 1509.85 1394.90
NDH7 Higher Oct 1691.30 1774.00 1667.50 1763.80 90% 10 7 7 100% 1774.00 2073.61 1763.80
USH7 Higher Oct 112~11 113~02 109~25 112~20 87% 29 16 14 88% 113~02 117~23 112~20
TYH7 Higher Oct 108~035 108~200 106~205 108~100 84% 24 15 14 93% 108~200 111~105 108~100
EDM7 Lower Oct 94.985 95.135 94.715 94.950 56% 24 7 7 100% 94.715 94.374 94.950
ADH7 Higher Oct 74.28 77.19 73.99 77.19 100% 19 11 10 91% 77.19 80.55 77.19
CLG7 Lower Oct 65.83 64.75 60.35 61.90 35% 23 12 11 92% 60.35 53.33 61.90
CLH7 Lower Oct 66.47 66.10 61.65 62.90 28% 23 12 11 92% 61.65 54.89 62.90
HOG7 Lower Oct 189.07 188.80 172.50 176.05 22% 27 14 12 86% 172.50 150.15 176.05
HOH7 Lower Oct 189.37 189.10 173.50 176.70 21% 27 12 11 92% 173.50 151.13 176.70
SMH7 Higher Oct 167.00 194.00 165.80 192.50 95% 45 22 19 86% 194.00 207.88 192.50
LEJ7 Higher Oct 62.700 68.500 62.150 68.375 98% 37 21 18 86% 68.500 74.638 68.375
JOH7 Higher Oct 172.45 199.30 163.50 198.00 96% 39 19 16 84% 199.30 220.73 198.00
CCH7 Higher Oct 1504 1526 1433 1518 91% 45 15 13 87% 1526 1674 1518
CCK7 Higher Oct 1527 1550 1456 1542 91% 45 14 13 93% 1550 1698 1542
LBH7 Higher Oct 273.5 293.4 256.6 282.2 70% 33 21 18 86% 293.4 316.7 282.2


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 11679.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 12081.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 11656.00(Month Low) to 12167.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12167.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 12815.43(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 4453.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 4726.60(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 4416.00(Month Low) to 4818.40(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4818.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 5180.48(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 428.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at 448.29(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 426.84(Month Low) to 454.39(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 454.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 476.55(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 620.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 640.35(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 617.70(Month Low) to 645.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #OEX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 645.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 690.13(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1654.10(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1732.50(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 1623.10(Month Low) to 1745.80(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1745.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1941.09(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 725.60(Prev Close), the market ended October at 766.85(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 712.15(Month Low) to 776.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 776.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 838.88(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 754.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 785.00(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 744.10(Month Low) to 796.55(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #MID went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 796.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 851.77(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2044.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2138.60(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 2019.10(Month Low) to 2161.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #VLE went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2161.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2304.14(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1335.85(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1377.95(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1327.10(Month Low) to 1389.45(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1389.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1466.40(Average Objective).

March S & P 500(CME)
The SPH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1356.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1394.90(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1349.00(Month Low) to 1404.70(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SPH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1404.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1509.85(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1691.30(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1763.80(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1667.50(Month Low) to 1774.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 10 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NDH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 1774.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 2073.61(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 112~11(Prev Close), the market ended October at 112~20(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 109~25(Month Low) to 113~02(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, USH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 113~02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 117~23(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 108~035(Prev Close), the market ended October at 108~100(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 106~205(Month Low) to 108~200(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, TYH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 108~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 111~105(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 94.985(Prev Close), the market ended October at 94.950(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 94.715(Month Low) to 95.135(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, EDM went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 94.715(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 94.374(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 74.28(Prev Close), the market ended October at 77.19(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 73.99(Month Low) to 77.19(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 77.19(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 80.55(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 65.83(Prev Close), the market ended October at 61.90(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 60.35(Month Low) to 64.75(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 60.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 53.33(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 66.47(Prev Close), the market ended October at 62.90(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 61.65(Month Low) to 66.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 61.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 54.89(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 189.07(Prev Close), the market ended October at 176.05(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 172.50(Month Low) to 188.80(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 172.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 150.15(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 189.37(Prev Close), the market ended October at 176.70(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 173.50(Month Low) to 189.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 173.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 151.13(Average Objective).

March Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 167.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 192.50(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 165.80(Month Low) to 194.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should exceed 194.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 207.88(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 62.700(Prev Close), the market ended October at 68.375(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 62.150(Month Low) to 68.500(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 68.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 74.638(Average Objective).

March Orange Juice(NYBOT)
The JOH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 172.45(Prev Close), the market ended October at 198.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 163.50(Month Low) to 199.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JOH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should exceed 199.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 220.73(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(NYBOT)
The CCH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1504(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1518(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1433(Month Low) to 1526(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(NYBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 1526(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1674(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(NYBOT)
The CCK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1527(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1542(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1456(Month Low) to 1550(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(NYBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 1550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1698(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 273.5(Prev Close), the market ended October at 282.2(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 256.6(Month Low) to 293.4(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 293.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 316.7(Average Objective).