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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary April 28, 2006
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Apr 11109.00 11418.00 11039.00 11367.00 87% 45 26 23 88% 11418.00 11903.11 11367.00
#OEX Higher Apr 587.85 598.40 580.65 595.90 86% 22 13 13 100% 598.40 628.69 595.90
#MID Higher Apr 792.10 813.30 779.15 802.70 69% 25 15 13 87% 813.30 867.31 802.70
#VLE Higher Apr 2095.30 2139.90 2060.10 2117.90 72% 23 12 11 92% 2139.90 2276.87 2117.90
#SP Higher Apr 1294.80 1318.15 1280.75 1310.60 80% 45 30 26 87% 1318.15 1373.26 1310.60
SPU6 Higher Apr 1314.10 1331.50 1299.30 1327.00 86% 23 13 13 100% 1331.50 1392.02 1327.00
USU6 Lower Apr 109~06 109~10 106~04 106~22 18% 28 15 13 87% 106~04 102~03 106~22
EDU6 Higher Apr 94.740 94.780 94.590 94.760 89% 24 14 13 93% 94.780 95.331 94.760
EDZ6 Higher Apr 94.745 94.810 94.585 94.755 76% 24 14 12 86% 94.810 95.473 94.755
SFU6 Higher Apr 78.06 81.73 77.98 81.71 99% 31 13 11 85% 81.73 84.18 81.71
ADU6 Higher Apr 71.49 75.80 71.39 75.80 100% 19 12 11 92% 75.80 78.82 75.80
SIN6 Higher Apr 1161.3 1474.0 1165.0 1363.0 64% 42 14 12 86% 1474.0 1594.9 1363.0
SIU6 Higher Apr 1164.1 1480.0 1173.0 1371.2 65% 42 15 13 87% 1480.0 1607.1 1371.2
CLQ6 Higher Apr 69.09 76.70 68.60 74.25 70% 23 14 12 86% 76.70 83.03 74.25
CLU6 Higher Apr 69.32 77.00 68.75 74.75 73% 23 15 13 87% 77.00 82.61 74.75
CLV6 Higher Apr 69.47 77.30 69.00 75.08 73% 23 15 13 87% 77.30 82.53 75.08
SMZ6 Lower Apr 180.80 184.00 175.30 178.80 40% 43 21 18 86% 175.30 164.82 178.80
CZ6 Higher Apr 268.00 275.00 262.75 271.75 73% 45 19 16 84% 275.00 305.79 271.75
WN6 Lower Apr 361.50 382.00 351.00 358.50 24% 45 25 22 88% 351.00 325.49 358.50
RRN6 Lower Apr 8.87 8.90 8.40 8.54 27% 16 7 7 100% 8.40 7.74 8.54
RRU6 Lower Apr 9.05 9.00 8.68 8.83 47% 19 9 9 100% 8.68 8.13 8.83
LEN6 Higher Apr 65.650 68.600 63.450 68.250 93% 36 25 21 84% 68.600 73.790 68.250
PBG7 Lower Apr 86.250 86.300 82.950 85.000 61% 34 20 18 90% 82.950 74.323 85.000
LBU6 Higher Apr 341.2 363.5 338.1 357.7 77% 33 12 11 92% 363.5 405.8 357.7
LBX6 Higher Apr 327.4 342.4 323.0 337.3 74% 33 13 11 85% 342.4 375.5 337.3


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 11109.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 11367.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 11039.00(Month Low) to 11418.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 11418.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 11903.11(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 587.85(Prev Close), the market ended April at 595.90(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 580.65(Month Low) to 598.40(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 598.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 628.69(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 792.10(Prev Close), the market ended April at 802.70(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 779.15(Month Low) to 813.30(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 813.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 867.31(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2095.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2117.90(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 2060.10(Month Low) to 2139.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2139.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2276.87(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1294.80(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1310.60(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 1280.75(Month Low) to 1318.15(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1318.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1373.26(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1314.10(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1327.00(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1299.30(Month Low) to 1331.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1331.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1392.02(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 109~06(Prev Close), the market ended April at 106~22(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 106~04(Month Low) to 109~10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, USU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should penetrate 106~04(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 102~03(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 94.740(Prev Close), the market ended April at 94.760(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 94.590(Month Low) to 94.780(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 94.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 95.331(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 94.745(Prev Close), the market ended April at 94.755(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 94.585(Month Low) to 94.810(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 94.810(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 95.473(Average Objective).

September Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 78.06(Prev Close), the market ended April at 81.71(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 77.98(Month Low) to 81.73(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SFU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 81.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 84.18(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 71.49(Prev Close), the market ended April at 75.80(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 71.39(Month Low) to 75.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 75.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 78.82(Average Objective).

July Silver(CMX)
The SIN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1161.3(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1363.0(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 1165.0(Month Low) to 1474.0(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Silver(CMX) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SIN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIN should exceed 1474.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 1594.9(Average Objective).

September Silver(CMX)
The SIU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1164.1(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1371.2(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 1173.0(Month Low) to 1480.0(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Silver(CMX) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SIU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIU should exceed 1480.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1607.1(Average Objective).

August Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 69.09(Prev Close), the market ended April at 74.25(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 68.60(Month Low) to 76.70(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 76.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 83.03(Average Objective).

September Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 69.32(Prev Close), the market ended April at 74.75(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 68.75(Month Low) to 77.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 77.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 82.61(Average Objective).

October Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 69.47(Prev Close), the market ended April at 75.08(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 69.00(Month Low) to 77.30(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLV should exceed 77.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 82.53(Average Objective).

December Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 180.80(Prev Close), the market ended April at 178.80(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 175.30(Month Low) to 184.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 175.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 164.82(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 268.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 271.75(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 262.75(Month Low) to 275.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 275.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 305.79(Average Objective).

July Wheat(CBOT)
The WN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 361.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 358.50(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 351.00(Month Low) to 382.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 351.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 325.49(Average Objective).

July Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 8.87(Prev Close), the market ended April at 8.54(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 8.40(Month Low) to 8.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, RRN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 8.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 7.74(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 9.05(Prev Close), the market ended April at 8.83(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 8.68(Month Low) to 9.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 8.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 8.13(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 65.650(Prev Close), the market ended April at 68.250(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 63.450(Month Low) to 68.600(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LEN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 68.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 73.790(Average Objective).

February Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 86.250(Prev Close), the market ended April at 85.000(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 82.950(Month Low) to 86.300(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PBG went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should penetrate 82.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 74.323(Average Objective).

September Lumber(CME)
The LBU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 341.2(Prev Close), the market ended April at 357.7(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 338.1(Month Low) to 363.5(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, LBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should exceed 363.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 405.8(Average Objective).

November Lumber(CME)
The LBX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 327.4(Prev Close), the market ended April at 337.3(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 323.0(Month Low) to 342.4(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LBX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should exceed 342.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 375.5(Average Objective).