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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Feb 28, 2006
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Feb 10865.00 11159.00 10738.00 10993.00 61% 45 24 23 96% 11159.00 11766.28 10993.00
#TRAN Higher Feb 4367.50 4490.00 4217.80 4436.40 80% 36 22 19 86% 4490.00 4795.29 4436.40
#OEX Higher Feb 578.80 587.85 568.35 580.75 64% 22 13 11 85% 587.85 615.19 580.75
#NDX Lower Feb 1710.80 1714.30 1637.90 1670.60 43% 20 9 8 89% 1637.90 1502.33 1670.60
NDM6 Lower Feb 1738.00 1742.00 1671.50 1693.00 30% 9 6 6 100% 1671.50 1548.18 1693.00
TYM6 Lower Feb 108~110 108~120 107~140 107~290 50% 23 11 11 100% 107~140 105~037 107~290
EDM6 Lower Feb 95.075 95.060 94.870 94.930 32% 23 12 12 100% 94.870 94.459 94.930
EDU6 Lower Feb 95.080 95.060 94.820 94.880 25% 23 11 11 100% 94.820 94.291 94.880
SFM6 Lower Feb 79.28 78.89 76.49 77.08 25% 30 15 14 93% 76.49 73.48 77.08
CDM6 Higher Feb 88.18 88.34 86.43 88.29 97% 29 11 10 91% 88.34 90.20 88.29
DXM6 Higher Feb 88.48 90.53 88.77 89.70 53% 20 8 7 88% 90.53 93.50 89.70
GCM6 Lower Feb 580.5 585.0 543.5 569.1 62% 31 18 16 89% 543.5 511.9 569.1
BOK6 Higher Feb 22.79 24.08 22.10 23.97 94% 45 27 23 85% 24.08 26.36 23.97
BON6 Higher Feb 23.20 24.41 22.48 24.32 95% 45 27 24 89% 24.41 26.70 24.32
BOQ6 Higher Feb 23.30 24.43 22.74 24.43 100% 44 26 23 88% 24.43 26.70 24.43
MWK6 Higher Feb 400.25 435.50 394.25 428.00 82% 25 8 7 88% 435.50 474.15 428.00
MWN6 Higher Feb 402.75 442.00 397.50 435.50 85% 25 8 7 88% 442.00 482.47 435.50
LEM6 Higher Feb 69.150 71.000 67.100 69.950 73% 36 17 16 94% 71.000 77.320 69.950
LEM6 Higher Feb 69.150 71.000 67.100 69.950 73% 36 17 16 94% 71.000 77.320 69.950
LEN6 Higher Feb 67.200 68.800 65.050 68.325 87% 36 16 14 88% 68.800 75.340 68.325
PBK6 Higher Feb 76.575 91.200 73.850 89.400 90% 41 16 15 94% 91.200 104.096 89.400
PBN6 Higher Feb 78.150 90.900 75.300 90.500 97% 41 16 15 94% 90.900 103.388 90.500
JON6 Higher Feb 125.05 132.90 123.85 130.85 77% 38 15 13 87% 132.90 143.80 130.85


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 10865.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 10993.00(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 10738.00(Month Low) to 11159.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 11159.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 11766.28(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 4367.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 4436.40(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 4217.80(Month Low) to 4490.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #TRAN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4490.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 4795.29(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 578.80(Prev Close), the market ended February at 580.75(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 568.35(Month Low) to 587.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #OEX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 587.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 615.19(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1710.80(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1670.60(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 1637.90(Month Low) to 1714.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed lower in February than January in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #NDX went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should penetrate 1637.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 1502.33(Average Objective).

June NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1738.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1693.00(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 1671.50(Month Low) to 1742.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 9 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NDM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDM should penetrate 1671.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 1548.18(Average Objective).

June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 108~110(Prev Close), the market ended February at 107~290(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 107~140(Month Low) to 108~120(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, TYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 107~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 105~037(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 95.075(Prev Close), the market ended February at 94.930(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 94.870(Month Low) to 95.060(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, EDM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 94.870(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 94.459(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 95.080(Prev Close), the market ended February at 94.880(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 94.820(Month Low) to 95.060(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 94.820(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 94.291(Average Objective).

June Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 79.28(Prev Close), the market ended February at 77.08(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 76.49(Month Low) to 78.89(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SFM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 76.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 73.48(Average Objective).

June Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 88.18(Prev Close), the market ended February at 88.29(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 86.43(Month Low) to 88.34(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, CDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should exceed 88.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 90.20(Average Objective).

June US Dollar Index(NYBOT)
The DXM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 88.48(Prev Close), the market ended February at 89.70(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 88.77(Month Low) to 90.53(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(NYBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, DXM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 90.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 93.50(Average Objective).

June Gold(CMX)
The GCM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 580.5(Prev Close), the market ended February at 569.1(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 543.5(Month Low) to 585.0(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, GCM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 543.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 511.9(Average Objective).

May Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 22.79(Prev Close), the market ended February at 23.97(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 22.10(Month Low) to 24.08(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, BOK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 24.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 26.36(Average Objective).

July Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BON6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 23.20(Prev Close), the market ended February at 24.32(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 22.48(Month Low) to 24.41(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, BON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 24.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 26.70(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 23.30(Prev Close), the market ended February at 24.43(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 22.74(Month Low) to 24.43(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should exceed 24.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 26.70(Average Objective).

May Wheat(MGE)
The MWK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 400.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 428.00(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 394.25(Month Low) to 435.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(MGE) also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, MWK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWK should exceed 435.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 474.15(Average Objective).

July Wheat(MGE)
The MWN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 402.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 435.50(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 397.50(Month Low) to 442.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(MGE) also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, MWN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWN should exceed 442.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 482.47(Average Objective).

June Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 69.150(Prev Close), the market ended February at 69.950(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 67.100(Month Low) to 71.000(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LEM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 71.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 77.320(Average Objective).

June Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 69.150(Prev Close), the market ended February at 69.950(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 67.100(Month Low) to 71.000(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LEM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 71.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 77.320(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 67.200(Prev Close), the market ended February at 68.325(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 65.050(Month Low) to 68.800(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, LEN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 68.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 75.340(Average Objective).

May Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 76.575(Prev Close), the market ended February at 89.400(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 73.850(Month Low) to 91.200(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, PBK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBK should exceed 91.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 104.096(Average Objective).

July Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 78.150(Prev Close), the market ended February at 90.500(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 75.300(Month Low) to 90.900(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, PBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBN should exceed 90.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 103.388(Average Objective).

July Orange Juice(NYBOT)
The JON6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 125.05(Prev Close), the market ended February at 130.85(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 123.85(Month Low) to 132.90(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, JON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JON should exceed 132.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 143.80(Average Objective).