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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Jan 31, 2006
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Jan 10718.00 11048.00 10661.00 10865.00 53% 45 30 27 90% 11048.00 11623.32 10865.00
#TRAN Higher Jan 4196.00 4376.40 4059.90 4367.50 97% 34 21 19 90% 4376.40 4725.97 4367.50
#OEX Higher Jan 569.80 588.70 569.45 578.75 48% 22 14 12 86% 588.70 618.09 578.75
#MID Higher Jan 738.05 781.75 732.55 781.00 98% 24 15 14 93% 781.75 823.58 781.00
#VLE Higher Jan 1916.70 2043.20 1903.40 2039.20 97% 22 14 13 93% 2043.20 2161.10 2039.20
#SSNI Higher Jan 16111 16755 15060 16650 94% 23 14 12 86% 16755 17946 16650
#SP Higher Jan 1248.30 1294.90 1245.75 1280.10 70% 45 28 26 93% 1294.90 1359.36 1280.10
SPM6 Higher Jan 1264.40 1309.70 1262.00 1293.40 66% 23 16 14 88% 1309.70 1386.50 1293.40
EDM6 Lower Jan 95.155 95.290 95.065 95.075 4% 23 9 8 89% 95.065 94.744 95.075
EDU6 Lower Jan 95.160 95.320 95.060 95.080 8% 23 10 9 90% 95.060 94.654 95.080
SFM6 Higher Jan 77.25 80.66 78.30 79.28 42% 30 9 8 89% 80.66 84.43 79.28
JYM6 Higher Jan 86.58 89.90 86.45 86.72 8% 29 9 8 89% 89.90 94.17 86.72
CDM6 Higher Jan 86.41 88.20 85.13 88.18 99% 28 10 9 90% 88.20 90.02 88.18
ADM6 Higher Jan 73.08 75.59 73.55 75.48 95% 17 7 6 86% 75.59 78.19 75.48
DXM6 Lower Jan 90.63 89.57 87.40 88.48 50% 20 8 7 88% 87.40 84.41 88.48
PLJ6 Higher Jan 979.0 1089.9 980.0 1085.3 96% 37 20 19 95% 1089.9 1188.9 1085.3
HGK6 Higher Jan 198.35 220.40 195.80 220.40 100% 45 27 25 93% 220.40 247.80 220.40
CLK6 Higher Jan 62.70 69.90 63.60 69.28 90% 22 14 13 93% 69.90 78.68 69.28
CLM6 Higher Jan 63.00 70.25 63.90 69.70 91% 22 14 13 93% 70.25 78.29 69.70
CLN6 Higher Jan 63.25 70.42 64.15 70.01 93% 22 13 12 92% 70.42 78.52 70.01
HUK6 Higher Jan 184.45 199.88 185.50 197.33 82% 20 14 13 93% 199.88 223.20 197.33
HUM6 Higher Jan 185.65 203.00 187.00 199.43 78% 20 15 13 87% 203.00 228.67 199.43
SMK6 Lower Jan 197.30 202.50 178.00 187.80 40% 45 21 21 100% 178.00 167.90 187.80
SMN6 Lower Jan 197.80 203.50 180.70 190.40 43% 45 22 22 100% 180.70 170.39 190.40
SMQ6 Lower Jan 200.20 204.00 182.00 191.80 45% 44 22 21 95% 182.00 171.83 191.80
CU6 Higher Jan 239.25 247.00 231.25 245.25 89% 45 22 19 86% 247.00 260.63 245.25
WN6 Higher Jan 357.25 370.00 341.50 364.50 81% 45 20 17 85% 370.00 392.19 364.50
ON6 Lower Jan 182.00 187.00 171.00 181.00 63% 31 19 17 89% 171.00 157.46 181.00
LBN6 Lower Jan 354.6 374.5 347.0 352.7 21% 32 11 10 91% 347.0 327.5 352.7


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 10718.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 10865.00(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 10661.00(Month Low) to 11048.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 11048.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 11623.32(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4196.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4367.50(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 4059.90(Month Low) to 4376.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4376.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 4725.97(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 569.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 578.75(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 569.45(Month Low) to 588.70(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #OEX went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 588.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 618.09(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 738.05(Prev Close), the market ended January at 781.00(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 732.55(Month Low) to 781.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 781.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 823.58(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1916.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2039.20(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 1903.40(Month Low) to 2043.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2043.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2161.10(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 16111(Prev Close), the market ended January at 16650(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 15060(Month Low) to 16755(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #SSNI went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 16755(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 17946(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1248.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1280.10(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 1245.75(Month Low) to 1294.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1294.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1359.36(Average Objective).

June S & P 500(CME)
The SPM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1264.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1293.40(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 1262.00(Month Low) to 1309.70(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SPM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1309.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1386.50(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 95.155(Prev Close), the market ended January at 95.075(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 95.065(Month Low) to 95.290(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EDM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 95.065(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 94.744(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 95.160(Prev Close), the market ended January at 95.080(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 95.060(Month Low) to 95.320(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EDU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 95.060(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 94.654(Average Objective).

June Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 77.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 79.28(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 78.30(Month Low) to 80.66(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, SFM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should exceed 80.66(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 84.43(Average Objective).

June Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 86.58(Prev Close), the market ended January at 86.72(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 86.45(Month Low) to 89.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, JYM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should exceed 89.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 94.17(Average Objective).

June Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 86.41(Prev Close), the market ended January at 88.18(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 85.13(Month Low) to 88.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, CDM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should exceed 88.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 90.02(Average Objective).

June Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 73.08(Prev Close), the market ended January at 75.48(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 73.55(Month Low) to 75.59(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, ADM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADM should exceed 75.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 78.19(Average Objective).

June US Dollar Index(NYBOT)
The DXM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 90.63(Prev Close), the market ended January at 88.48(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 87.40(Month Low) to 89.57(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(NYBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, DXM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 87.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 84.41(Average Objective).

April Platinum(NYM)
The PLJ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 979.0(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1085.3(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 980.0(Month Low) to 1089.9(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1089.9(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1188.9(Average Objective).

May Copper(CMX)
The HGK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 198.35(Prev Close), the market ended January at 220.40(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 195.80(Month Low) to 220.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 220.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 247.80(Average Objective).

May Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 62.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 69.28(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 63.60(Month Low) to 69.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 69.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 78.68(Average Objective).

June Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 63.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 69.70(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 63.90(Month Low) to 70.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 70.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 78.29(Average Objective).

July Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 63.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 70.01(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 64.15(Month Low) to 70.42(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 70.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 78.52(Average Objective).

May Unleaded Gas(NYM)
The HUK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 184.45(Prev Close), the market ended January at 197.33(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 185.50(Month Low) to 199.88(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HUK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUK should exceed 199.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 223.20(Average Objective).

June Unleaded Gas(NYM)
The HUM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 185.65(Prev Close), the market ended January at 199.43(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 187.00(Month Low) to 203.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HUM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUM should exceed 203.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 228.67(Average Objective).

May Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 197.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 187.80(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 178.00(Month Low) to 202.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should penetrate 178.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 167.90(Average Objective).

July Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 197.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 190.40(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 180.70(Month Low) to 203.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should penetrate 180.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 170.39(Average Objective).

August Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 200.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 191.80(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 182.00(Month Low) to 204.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMQ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 182.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 171.83(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 239.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 245.25(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 231.25(Month Low) to 247.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should exceed 247.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 260.63(Average Objective).

July Wheat(CBOT)
The WN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 357.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 364.50(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 341.50(Month Low) to 370.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should exceed 370.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 392.19(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 182.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 181.00(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 171.00(Month Low) to 187.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, ON went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 171.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 157.46(Average Objective).

July Lumber(CME)
The LBN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 354.6(Prev Close), the market ended January at 352.7(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 347.0(Month Low) to 374.5(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 347.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 327.5(Average Objective).