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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2005
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#TRAN Higher Oct 3740.60 3822.60 3550.60 3815.50 97% 35 24 22 92% 3822.60 4113.65 3815.50
NDH6 Lower Oct 1627.00 1631.50 1541.50 1601.50 67% 9 2 2 100% 1541.50 1392.15 1601.50
TYH6 Lower Oct 109~260 109~275 107~310 108~075 14% 23 8 7 88% 107~310 105~318 108~075
EDM6 Lower Oct 95.395 95.440 95.155 95.175 7% 23 6 6 100% 95.155 94.775 95.175
JYH6 Lower Oct 89.65 89.93 87.30 87.30 0% 29 15 14 93% 87.30 84.42 87.30
ADH6 Lower Oct 75.76 75.95 74.43 74.45 1% 18 7 6 86% 74.43 72.98 74.45
CLG6 Lower Oct 66.82 66.90 59.65 60.77 15% 22 11 10 91% 59.65 52.42 60.77
CLH6 Lower Oct 67.03 67.00 59.70 61.00 18% 22 11 10 91% 59.70 52.81 61.00
CLJ6 Lower Oct 67.14 67.05 59.60 61.16 21% 21 11 10 91% 59.60 52.46 61.16
HOG6 Lower Oct 216.31 215.50 188.00 188.89 3% 26 13 11 85% 188.00 163.91 188.89
HOH6 Lower Oct 212.41 212.30 186.75 187.09 1% 26 11 10 91% 186.75 162.67 187.09
MWH6 Lower Oct 384.75 399.00 372.00 377.50 20% 24 11 10 91% 372.00 357.01 377.50
MWK6 Lower Oct 385.00 400.00 373.00 374.00 4% 24 8 7 88% 373.00 356.62 374.00
RRH6 Lower Oct 7.72 7.95 7.57 7.63 16% 19 10 9 90% 7.57 7.10 7.63
RRK6 Lower Oct 7.92 8.14 7.79 7.85 17% 18 10 9 90% 7.79 7.34 7.85
LEJ6 Higher Oct 64.400 67.200 63.250 65.675 61% 36 20 17 85% 67.200 73.168 65.675
JOK6 Higher Oct 107.80 122.30 107.35 122.30 100% 38 19 16 84% 122.30 134.83 122.30


Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3740.60(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3815.50(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 3550.60(Month Low) to 3822.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 3822.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 4113.65(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1627.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1601.50(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 1541.50(Month Low) to 1631.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 9 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 2(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 2, NDH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 2 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should penetrate 1541.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 2 years) a potential move toward 1392.15(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 109~260(Prev Close), the market ended October at 108~075(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 107~310(Month Low) to 109~275(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, TYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should penetrate 107~310(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 105~318(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 95.395(Prev Close), the market ended October at 95.175(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 95.155(Month Low) to 95.440(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, EDM went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 95.155(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 94.775(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 89.65(Prev Close), the market ended October at 87.30(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 87.30(Month Low) to 89.93(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 87.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 84.42(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 75.76(Prev Close), the market ended October at 74.45(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 74.43(Month Low) to 75.95(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, ADH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should penetrate 74.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 72.98(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 66.82(Prev Close), the market ended October at 60.77(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 59.65(Month Low) to 66.90(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 59.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 52.42(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 67.03(Prev Close), the market ended October at 61.00(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 59.70(Month Low) to 67.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 59.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 52.81(Average Objective).

April Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLJ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 67.14(Prev Close), the market ended October at 61.16(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 59.60(Month Low) to 67.05(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, CLJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 59.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 52.46(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 216.31(Prev Close), the market ended October at 188.89(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 188.00(Month Low) to 215.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 188.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 163.91(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 212.41(Prev Close), the market ended October at 187.09(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 186.75(Month Low) to 212.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 186.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 162.67(Average Objective).

March Wheat(MGE)
The MWH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 384.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at 377.50(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 372.00(Month Low) to 399.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, MWH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWH should penetrate 372.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 357.01(Average Objective).

May Wheat(MGE)
The MWK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 385.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 374.00(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 373.00(Month Low) to 400.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in October than September in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, MWK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWK should penetrate 373.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 356.62(Average Objective).

March Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 7.72(Prev Close), the market ended October at 7.63(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 7.57(Month Low) to 7.95(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 7.57(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 7.10(Average Objective).

May Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 7.92(Prev Close), the market ended October at 7.85(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 7.79(Month Low) to 8.14(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 7.79(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 7.34(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 64.400(Prev Close), the market ended October at 65.675(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 63.250(Month Low) to 67.200(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 67.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 73.168(Average Objective).

May Orange Juice(NYBOT)
The JOK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 107.80(Prev Close), the market ended October at 122.30(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 107.35(Month Low) to 122.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JOK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should exceed 122.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 134.83(Average Objective).