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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2005
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
SPZ5 Lower Aug 1243.40 1254.50 1208.50 1227.80 42% 23 8 7 88% 1208.50 1129.93 1227.80
USZ5 Higher Aug 114~29 118~06 113~11 118~01 97% 27 16 15 94% 118~06 123~16 118~01
TYZ5 Higher Aug 110~085 112~075 109~015 112~025 95% 23 15 14 93% 112~075 116~005 112~025
EDZ5 Higher Aug 95.735 95.920 95.640 95.920 100% 23 16 15 94% 95.920 96.600 95.920
EDH6 Higher Aug 95.630 95.890 95.490 95.885 99% 23 14 14 100% 95.890 96.582 95.885
EDM6 Higher Aug 95.570 95.865 95.405 95.860 99% 23 14 14 100% 95.865 96.600 95.860
SFZ5 Higher Aug 78.53 81.05 79.11 80.47 70% 30 16 14 88% 81.05 85.54 80.47
BPZ5 Higher Aug 175.29 181.30 176.56 179.98 72% 30 13 11 85% 181.30 188.10 179.98
CDZ5 Higher Aug 82.04 84.74 82.10 84.53 92% 28 16 14 88% 84.74 86.37 84.53
DXZ5 Lower Aug 88.98 88.61 86.49 87.29 38% 19 12 12 100% 86.49 83.29 87.29
CLZ5 Higher Aug 62.86 70.80 63.00 69.58 84% 22 14 12 86% 70.80 77.99 69.58
CLF6 Higher Aug 63.22 70.80 63.45 69.71 85% 22 14 12 86% 70.80 77.44 69.71
CLG6 Higher Aug 63.44 70.60 63.80 69.84 89% 22 14 12 86% 70.60 76.89 69.84
HOZ5 Higher Aug 176.82 212.50 179.14 210.25 93% 26 16 16 100% 212.50 231.57 210.25
HOF6 Higher Aug 178.82 213.00 181.29 211.45 95% 26 16 16 100% 213.00 230.90 211.45
HUZ5 Higher Aug 162.20 197.50 164.00 196.38 97% 20 13 12 92% 197.50 216.48 196.38
HUF6 Higher Aug 163.75 197.00 165.50 194.88 93% 20 12 11 92% 197.00 212.84 194.88
LCZ5 Higher Aug 85.475 86.375 82.500 85.500 77% 40 19 16 84% 86.375 90.721 85.500
FCX5 Higher Aug 104.250 109.975 104.250 109.475 91% 33 19 17 89% 109.975 114.891 109.475
FCF6 Higher Aug 101.500 105.800 101.200 105.375 91% 28 14 13 93% 105.800 109.418 105.375
LEZ5 Higher Aug 55.650 62.300 55.900 61.550 88% 35 13 11 85% 62.300 67.726 61.550
SBH6 Higher Aug 9.81 10.61 9.74 10.57 95% 44 20 18 90% 10.61 12.22 10.57
CCH6 Lower Aug 1541 1565 1407 1436 18% 45 19 17 89% 1407 1292 1436


December S & P 500(CME)
The SPZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1243.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 1208.50(Month Low) to 1254.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, SPZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should penetrate 1208.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 1129.93(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 114~29(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 113~11(Month Low) to 118~06(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 118~06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 123~16(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 110~085(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 109~015(Month Low) to 112~075(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 112~075(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 116~005(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 95.735(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 95.640(Month Low) to 95.920(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 95.920(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 96.600(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 95.630(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 95.490(Month Low) to 95.890(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 95.890(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 96.582(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 95.570(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 95.405(Month Low) to 95.865(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDM went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 95.865(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 96.600(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 78.53(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 79.11(Month Low) to 81.05(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SFZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 81.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 85.54(Average Objective).

December British Pound(CME)
The BPZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 175.29(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 176.56(Month Low) to 181.30(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December British Pound(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, BPZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPZ should exceed 181.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 188.10(Average Objective).

December Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 82.04(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 82.10(Month Low) to 84.74(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should exceed 84.74(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 86.37(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(NYBOT)
The DXZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 88.98(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 86.49(Month Low) to 88.61(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(NYBOT) also closed lower in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, DXZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 86.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 83.29(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 62.86(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 63.00(Month Low) to 70.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 70.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 77.99(Average Objective).

January Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 63.22(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 63.45(Month Low) to 70.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 70.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 77.44(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 63.44(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 63.80(Month Low) to 70.60(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should exceed 70.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 76.89(Average Objective).

December Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 176.82(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 179.14(Month Low) to 212.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 212.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 231.57(Average Objective).

January Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 178.82(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 181.29(Month Low) to 213.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should exceed 213.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 230.90(Average Objective).

December Unleaded Gas(NYM)
The HUZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 162.20(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 164.00(Month Low) to 197.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HUZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUZ should exceed 197.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 216.48(Average Objective).

January Unleaded Gas(NYM)
The HUF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 163.75(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 165.50(Month Low) to 197.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, HUF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUF should exceed 197.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 212.84(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 85.475(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 82.500(Month Low) to 86.375(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LCZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 86.375(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 90.721(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 104.250(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 104.250(Month Low) to 109.975(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, FCX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 109.975(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 114.891(Average Objective).

January Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 101.500(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 101.200(Month Low) to 105.800(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, FCF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 105.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 109.418(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 55.650(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 55.900(Month Low) to 62.300(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LEZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should exceed 62.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 67.726(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(NYBOT)
The SBH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 9.81(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 9.74(Month Low) to 10.61(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(NYBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 10.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 12.22(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(NYBOT)
The CCH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1541(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 1407(Month Low) to 1565(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(NYBOT) also closed lower in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 1407(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1292(Average Objective).