MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2005
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#UTIL Higher Jul 386.59 400.17 379.53 397.29 86% 35 20 18 90% 400.17 415.62 397.29
#OEX Higher Jul 558.05 578.20 553.50 572.80 78% 22 9 8 89% 578.20 593.99 572.80
#NDX Higher Jul 1493.50 1619.90 1484.50 1605.10 89% 19 9 8 89% 1619.90 1728.85 1605.10
#COMPX Higher Jul 2057.00 2198.40 2057.40 2184.80 90% 10 3 3 100% 2198.40 2348.79 2184.80
#RUT Higher Jul 639.65 684.80 638.95 679.75 89% 26 12 11 92% 684.80 723.31 679.75
#MID Higher Jul 684.95 723.65 685.10 720.40 92% 24 9 9 100% 723.65 757.48 720.40
#VLE Higher Jul 1792.00 1909.10 1788.90 1896.50 90% 22 11 10 91% 1909.10 1988.24 1896.50
#SP Higher Jul 1191.35 1245.15 1183.55 1234.20 82% 45 19 18 95% 1245.15 1293.47 1234.20
SPZ5 Higher Jul 1201.30 1254.00 1191.70 1243.40 83% 23 8 8 100% 1254.00 1289.62 1243.40
USZ5 Lower Jul 118~11 118~16 114~13 114~29 12% 27 13 11 85% 114~13 109~28 114~29
ADZ5 Lower Jul 75.29 75.98 73.25 75.19 71% 17 10 9 90% 73.25 70.46 75.19
CLX5 Higher Jul 58.80 63.50 58.00 62.35 79% 22 14 13 93% 63.50 69.64 62.35
CLZ5 Higher Jul 59.12 64.00 58.30 62.86 80% 22 14 13 93% 64.00 69.89 62.86
CLF6 Higher Jul 59.29 64.00 58.70 63.22 85% 22 14 13 93% 64.00 69.55 63.22
NGX5 Higher Jul 7.723 8.630 7.745 8.488 84% 15 7 7 100% 8.630 9.857 8.488
NGZ5 Higher Jul 8.298 9.020 8.320 8.958 91% 15 8 7 88% 9.020 10.165 8.958
BOZ5 Higher Jul 24.15 26.48 24.15 24.63 21% 45 20 17 85% 26.48 28.90 24.63
LCV5 Higher Jul 82.550 84.050 80.500 83.400 82% 40 24 22 92% 84.050 87.839 83.400
FCX5 Lower Jul 105.200 107.400 101.250 104.250 49% 33 13 11 85% 101.250 95.613 104.250
FCF6 Lower Jul 102.500 104.400 99.000 101.500 46% 26 7 6 86% 99.000 95.311 101.500
LEV5 Higher Jul 56.550 59.800 56.200 57.525 37% 35 19 17 89% 59.800 64.247 57.525
PBG6 Higher Jul 76.200 83.650 76.500 82.100 78% 40 22 20 91% 83.650 93.061 82.100
CTV5 Lower Jul 54.47 55.45 47.95 50.99 41% 44 25 23 92% 47.95 44.64 50.99


Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 386.59(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 379.53(Month Low) to 400.17(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 400.17(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 415.62(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 558.05(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 553.50(Month Low) to 578.20(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 578.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 593.99(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1493.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 1484.50(Month Low) to 1619.90(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1619.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 1728.85(Average Objective).

NASDAQ Composite Index
The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2057.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2057.40(Month Low) to 2198.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 10 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed higher in July than June in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, the #COMPX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 2198.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 2348.79(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 639.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 638.95(Month Low) to 684.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #RUT went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 684.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 723.31(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 684.95(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 685.10(Month Low) to 723.65(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 723.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 757.48(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1792.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1788.90(Month Low) to 1909.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 1909.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1988.24(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1191.35(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1183.55(Month Low) to 1245.15(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1245.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1293.47(Average Objective).

December S & P 500(CME)
The SPZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1201.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 1191.70(Month Low) to 1254.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 1254.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 1289.62(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 118~11(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 114~13(Month Low) to 118~16(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, USZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should penetrate 114~13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 109~28(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 75.29(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 73.25(Month Low) to 75.98(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, ADZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should penetrate 73.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 70.46(Average Objective).

November Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLX5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 58.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 58.00(Month Low) to 63.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 63.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 69.64(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 59.12(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 58.30(Month Low) to 64.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 64.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 69.89(Average Objective).

January Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 59.29(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 58.70(Month Low) to 64.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 64.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 69.55(Average Objective).

November Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGX5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 7.723(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 7.745(Month Low) to 8.630(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NGX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should exceed 8.630(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 9.857(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 8.298(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 8.320(Month Low) to 9.020(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should exceed 9.020(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 10.165(Average Objective).

December Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 24.15(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 24.15(Month Low) to 26.48(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BOZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should exceed 26.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 28.90(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 82.550(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 80.500(Month Low) to 84.050(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 84.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 87.839(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 105.200(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 101.250(Month Low) to 107.400(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, FCX went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should penetrate 101.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 95.613(Average Objective).

January Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 102.500(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 99.000(Month Low) to 104.400(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, FCF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should penetrate 99.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 95.311(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 56.550(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 56.200(Month Low) to 59.800(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 59.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 64.247(Average Objective).

February Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBG6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 76.200(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 76.500(Month Low) to 83.650(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, PBG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should exceed 83.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 93.061(Average Objective).

October Cotton(NYBOT)
The CTV5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 54.47(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 47.95(Month Low) to 55.45(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(NYBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 47.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 44.64(Average Objective).