MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary


MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 2004 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Jul 31, 2004

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

#UTIL Higher Jul 277.90 285.10 274.50 281.30 64% 34 19 17 89% 285.10 295.78 281.30

USZ4 Higher Jul 105~07 108~18 105~00 107~01 57% 26 13 13 100% 108~18 112~18 107~01

TYZ4 Higher Jul 108~025 110~045 107~315 109~160 70% 22 13 13 100% 110~045 113~085 109~160

EDZ4 Higher Jul 97.485 97.715 97.475 97.640 69% 22 13 13 100% 97.715 98.290 97.640

EDZ4 Higher Jul 97.485 97.715 97.475 97.640 69% 22 13 13 100% 97.715 98.290 97.640

ADZ4 Higher Jul 68.52 72.33 68.70 69.17 13% 16 6 6 100% 72.33 73.86 69.17

PAZ4 Higher Jul 216.45 233.60 207.00 218.70 44% 26 15 13 87% 233.60 257.18 218.70

CLX4 Higher Jul 36.84 42.65 36.50 42.49 97% 21 13 12 92% 42.65 46.52 42.49

CLZ4 Higher Jul 36.66 42.10 36.33 41.99 98% 21 13 12 92% 42.10 45.71 41.99

CLF5 Higher Jul 36.39 41.47 36.20 41.47 100% 21 13 12 92% 41.47 44.76 41.47

NGX4 Higher Jul 6.453 6.740 6.220 6.546 63% 14 6 6 100% 6.740 7.738 6.546

NGZ4 Higher Jul 6.682 6.950 6.530 6.841 74% 14 7 6 86% 6.950 7.808 6.841

NGF5 Higher Jul 6.813 7.100 6.710 7.017 79% 14 7 6 86% 7.100 7.856 7.017

KWH5 Lower Jul 384.50 395.00 356.00 357.25 3% 28 13 11 85% 356.00 335.58 357.25

MWZ4 Lower Jul 397.00 403.00 360.00 360.25 1% 23 11 10 91% 360.00 339.88 360.25

LCV4 Higher Jul 86.300 91.725 84.650 88.750 58% 39 23 22 96% 91.725 95.757 88.750

FCX4 Higher Jul 105.400 111.150 102.550 109.100 76% 32 19 17 89% 111.150 116.520 109.100

LEV4 Higher Jul 66.100 70.100 63.950 69.225 86% 34 18 16 89% 70.100 75.234 69.225

CTV4 Lower Jul 51.20 52.40 43.50 43.83 4% 43 24 22 92% 43.50 40.61 43.83

Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 277.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 274.50(Month Low) to 285.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 285.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 295.78(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 105~07(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 105~00(Month Low) to 108~18(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 108~18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 112~18(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 108~025(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 107~315(Month Low) to 110~045(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 110~045(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 113~085(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 97.485(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 97.475(Month Low) to 97.715(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.715(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.290(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 97.485(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 97.475(Month Low) to 97.715(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.715(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.290(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 68.52(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 68.70(Month Low) to 72.33(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, ADZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 72.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 73.86(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYME): The PAZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 216.45(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 207.00(Month Low) to 233.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYME) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, PAZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 233.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 257.18(Average Objective).
November Crude Oil(NYM): The CLX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 36.84(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 36.50(Month Low) to 42.65(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 42.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 46.52(Average Objective).
December Crude Oil(NYM): The CLZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 36.66(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 36.33(Month Low) to 42.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 42.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 45.71(Average Objective).
January Crude Oil(NYM): The CLF5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 36.39(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 36.20(Month Low) to 41.47(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 41.47(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 44.76(Average Objective).
November Natural Gas(NYM): The NGX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 6.453(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 6.220(Month Low) to 6.740(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, NGX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should exceed 6.740(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 7.738(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 6.682(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 6.530(Month Low) to 6.950(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NGZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should exceed 6.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 7.808(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 6.813(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 6.710(Month Low) to 7.100(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, NGF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should exceed 7.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 7.856(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 384.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 356.00(Month Low) to 395.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KWH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 356.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 335.58(Average Objective).
December Wheat(MGE): The MWZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 397.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 360.00(Month Low) to 403.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, MWZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWZ should penetrate 360.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 339.88(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 86.300(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 84.650(Month Low) to 91.725(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 91.725(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 95.757(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 105.400(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 102.550(Month Low) to 111.150(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, FCX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 111.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 116.520(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 66.100(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 63.950(Month Low) to 70.100(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 70.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 75.234(Average Objective).
October Cotton(NYBOT): The CTV4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 51.20(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 43.50(Month Low) to 52.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(NYBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 43.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 40.61(Average Objective).