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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2003
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 9275.00 9850.00 9277.00 9801.00 91% 45 27 25 93% 9850.00 10396.40 9801.00
#TRAN Higher Oct 2673.90 2940.10 2673.30 2913.10 90% 33 22 20 91% 2940.10 3164.81 2913.10
#UTIL Higher Oct 250.60 255.60 250.20 252.70 46% 33 20 19 95% 255.60 268.27 252.70
#NDX Higher Oct 1303.70 1440.00 1306.30 1416.40 82% 17 11 11 100% 1440.00 1621.76 1416.40
#COMPX Higher Oct 1786.90 1966.90 1796.10 1932.70 80% 8 4 4 100% Yes 2358.94 1932.70
#RUT Higher Oct 487.68 536.41 488.29 528.22 83% 24 12 11 92% 536.41 581.88 528.22
#MID Higher Oct 510.42 551.09 510.42 548.52 94% 22 13 11 85% 551.09 593.10 548.52
#SP Higher Oct 995.95 1053.80 997.10 1050.70 95% 45 28 26 93% 1053.80 1111.97 1050.70
SPH4 Higher Oct 992.30 1050.00 998.50 1048.10 96% 21 13 11 85% 1050.00 1130.31 1048.10
NDH4 Higher Oct 1309.00 1431.00 1334.50 1421.00 90% 7 5 5 100% 1431.00 1744.08 1421.00
TYH4 Lower Oct 113~100 113~130 108~290 110~275 43% 21 7 7 100% 108~290 106~282 110~275
EDH4 Lower Oct 98.835 98.865 98.515 98.655 40% 21 4 4 100% 98.515 98.090 98.655
EDM4 Lower Oct 98.670 98.705 98.135 98.350 38% 21 5 5 100% 98.135 97.702 98.350
ADH4 Higher Oct 66.83 69.98 66.66 69.75 93% 16 9 8 89% 69.98 72.57 69.75
HOH4 Higher Oct 77.70 86.50 76.90 78.89 21% 24 13 11 85% 86.50 93.86 78.89
SMF4 Higher Oct 201.00 255.00 197.20 251.20 93% 44 23 20 87% 255.00 276.32 251.20
SMH4 Higher Oct 199.20 251.00 196.20 246.30 91% 44 22 20 91% 251.00 268.40 246.30
LEJ4 Higher Oct 58.100 62.400 57.025 59.835 52% 34 19 17 89% 62.400 67.838 59.835
PBH4 Higher Oct 86.000 93.150 82.600 87.280 44% 40 19 16 84% 93.150 102.473 87.280
KCH4 Lower Oct 65.40 69.40 61.65 61.65 0% 30 14 12 86% 61.65 55.92 61.65


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 9275.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 9277.00(Month Low) to 9850.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 9850.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 10396.40(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2673.90(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2673.30(Month Low) to 2940.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 2940.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3164.81(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 250.60(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 250.20(Month Low) to 255.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 255.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 268.27(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1303.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1306.30(Month Low) to 1440.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1440.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1621.76(Average Objective).

NASDAQ Composite Index
The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1786.90(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 1796.10(Month Low) to 1966.90(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 8 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed higher in October than September in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, the #COMPX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 1966.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 2358.94(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 487.68(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 488.29(Month Low) to 536.41(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 536.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 581.88(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 510.42(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 510.42(Month Low) to 551.09(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #MID went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 551.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 593.10(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 995.95(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 997.10(Month Low) to 1053.80(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1053.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1111.97(Average Objective).

March S & P 500(CME)
The SPH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 992.30(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 998.50(Month Low) to 1050.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SPH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1050.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1130.31(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1309.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1334.50(Month Low) to 1431.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 7 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, NDH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 1431.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 1744.08(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 113~100(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 108~290(Month Low) to 113~130(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, TYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should penetrate 108~290(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 106~282(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 98.835(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 98.515(Month Low) to 98.865(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, EDH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should penetrate 98.515(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 98.090(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 98.670(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 98.135(Month Low) to 98.705(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, EDM went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 98.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 97.702(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 66.83(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 66.66(Month Low) to 69.98(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 69.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 72.57(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 77.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 76.90(Month Low) to 86.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HOH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should exceed 86.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 93.86(Average Objective).

January Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 201.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 197.20(Month Low) to 255.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SMF went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should exceed 255.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 276.32(Average Objective).

March Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 199.20(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 196.20(Month Low) to 251.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should exceed 251.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 268.40(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 58.100(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 57.025(Month Low) to 62.400(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 62.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 67.838(Average Objective).

March Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 86.000(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 82.600(Month Low) to 93.150(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, PBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBH should exceed 93.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 102.473(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
The KCH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 65.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 61.65(Month Low) to 69.40(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 61.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 55.92(Average Objective).