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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
ScenarioSM Summary May 30, 2003
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#OEX Higher May 465.55 484.95 458.35 483.20 93% 20 14 12 86% 484.95 502.56 483.20
#NDX Higher May 1106.10 1201.30 1094.40 1197.90 97% 17 11 10 91% 1201.30 1246.64 1197.90
#COMPX Higher May 1464.30 1591.30 1451.30 1580.90 93% 8 3 3 100% Yes 1708.59 1580.90
#MID Higher May 438.79 474.54 431.88 474.54 100% 22 14 12 86% 474.54 494.84 474.54
SPU3 Higher May 915.00 964.00 902.00 962.20 97% 21 13 11 85% 964.00 1000.69 962.20
NDU3 Higher May 1111.00 1202.00 1111.50 1202.00 100% 6 1 1 100% 1202.00   1202.00
YXU3 Higher May 485.60 513.10 485.50 513.10 100% 19 13 11 85% 513.10 529.44 513.10
USU3 Higher May 112~23 120~19 111~29 119~07 84% 25 11 11 100% 120~19 126~02 119~07
TYU3 Higher May 114~060 118~205 113~190 118~140 96% 20 9 9 100% 118~205 122~220 118~140
EDZ3 Higher May 98.725 98.930 98.650 98.840 68% 21 11 10 91% 98.930 99.611 98.840
EDH4 Higher May 98.530 98.815 98.425 98.750 83% 21 11 10 91% 98.815 99.596 98.750
JYU3 Lower May 84.49 86.75 83.85 84.12 9% 26 15 13 87% 83.85 79.91 84.12
BPU3 Higher May 158.42 164.34 158.10 162.80 75% 28 10 9 90% 164.34 175.35 162.80
ADU3 Higher May 61.92 65.40 62.15 64.76 80% 16 7 7 100% 65.40 66.50 64.76
SU3 Higher May 579.75 620.00 577.00 588.00 26% 43 20 17 85% 620.00 711.77 588.00
SQ3 Higher May 619.25 653.50 609.00 623.00 31% 41 20 17 85% 653.50 759.58 623.00
SX3 Higher May 547.00 585.00 545.00 560.25 38% 43 20 19 95% 585.00 652.38 560.25
RRU3 Lower May 6.46 6.73 6.22 6.39 33% 16 7 6 86% Yes 5.78 6.39
LCV3 Higher May 69.975 71.675 67.600 70.600 74% 38 15 14 93% 71.675 74.496 70.600
LCZ3 Higher May 72.050 74.175 70.900 73.530 80% 38 17 15 88% 74.175 76.790 73.530
FCU3 Higher May 83.950 86.350 81.875 85.575 83% 31 16 14 88% 86.350 91.786 85.575
LEV3 Higher May 53.700 57.900 53.600 57.835 98% 33 16 14 88% 57.900 63.064 57.835
KCU3 Lower May 70.75 72.30 60.30 60.50 2% 29 15 13 87% 60.30 51.39 60.50
KCZ3 Lower May 72.75 74.25 63.30 63.40 1% 29 14 12 86% 63.30 52.75 63.40
SBH4 Lower May 7.10 7.27 6.75 7.05 58% 42 23 20 87% 6.75 5.80 7.05
CTZ3 Lower May 59.16 60.00 54.00 54.93 15% 42 19 16 84% 54.00 50.89 54.93


S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 465.55(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 458.35(Month Low) to 484.95(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 484.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 502.56(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1106.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 1094.40(Month Low) to 1201.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1201.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1246.64(Average Objective).

NASDAQ Composite Index
The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1464.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1451.30(Month Low) to 1591.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 8 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed higher in May than April in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, the #COMPX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 1591.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 1708.59(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 438.79(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 431.88(Month Low) to 474.54(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 474.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 494.84(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 915.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 902.00(Month Low) to 964.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 964.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1000.69(Average Objective).

September NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1111.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 1111.50(Month Low) to 1202.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 6 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, NDU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDU should exceed 1202.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.

September NYSE Composite(NYBOT)
The YXU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 485.60(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 485.50(Month Low) to 513.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NYSE Composite(NYBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, YXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YXU should exceed 513.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 529.44(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 112~23(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 111~29(Month Low) to 120~19(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 120~19(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 126~02(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 114~060(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 113~190(Month Low) to 118~205(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 118~205(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 122~220(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 98.725(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 98.650(Month Low) to 98.930(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 99.611(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 98.530(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 98.425(Month Low) to 98.815(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDH went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 98.815(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 99.596(Average Objective).

September Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 84.49(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 83.85(Month Low) to 86.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, JYU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should penetrate 83.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 79.91(Average Objective).

September British Pound(CME)
The BPU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 158.42(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 158.10(Month Low) to 164.34(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September British Pound(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, BPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPU should exceed 164.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 175.35(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 61.92(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 62.15(Month Low) to 65.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, ADU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 65.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 66.50(Average Objective).

September Soybeans(CBOT)
The SU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 579.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 577.00(Month Low) to 620.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should exceed 620.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 711.77(Average Objective).

August Soybeans(CBOT)
The SQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 619.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 609.00(Month Low) to 653.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SQ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should exceed 653.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 759.58(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 547.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 545.00(Month Low) to 585.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 585.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 652.38(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 6.46(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 6.22(Month Low) to 6.73(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 6.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 5.78(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 69.975(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 67.600(Month Low) to 71.675(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LCV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 71.675(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 74.496(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 72.050(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 70.900(Month Low) to 74.175(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 74.175(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 76.790(Average Objective).

September Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 83.950(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 81.875(Month Low) to 86.350(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, FCU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 86.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 91.786(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 53.700(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 53.600(Month Low) to 57.900(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, LEV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 57.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 63.064(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
The KCU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 70.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 60.30(Month Low) to 72.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KCU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 60.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 51.39(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
The KCZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 72.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 63.30(Month Low) to 74.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KCZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 63.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 52.75(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(NYBOT)
The SBH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 7.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 6.75(Month Low) to 7.27(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(NYBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SBH went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should penetrate 6.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 5.80(Average Objective).

December Cotton(NYBOT)
The CTZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 59.16(Prev Close), the market ended May at (Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 54.00(Month Low) to 60.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(NYBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 54.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 50.89(Average Objective).