MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary


MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Dec 31, 2002

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

USH3 Higher Dec 107~30 113~26 106~13 112~22 85% 25 14 14 100% 113~26 117~26 112~22

TYH3 Higher Dec 111~035 115~175 110~025 115~015 91% 20 12 11 92% 115~175 119~013 115~015

EDH3 Higher Dec 98.520 98.700 98.460 98.680 92% 20 12 11 92% 98.700 99.172 98.680

EDM3 Higher Dec 98.255 98.660 98.150 98.635 95% 20 13 13 100% 98.660 99.216 98.635

CDH3 Lower Dec 63.69 64.48 63.08 63.22 10% 26 13 11 85% 63.08 61.95 63.22

CLH3 Higher Dec 26.44 32.80 26.20 30.59 67% 19 9 9 100% 32.80 35.16 30.59

CLJ3 Higher Dec 26.13 31.30 25.95 29.46 66% 19 8 8 100% 31.30 33.57 29.46

CLK3 Higher Dec 25.81 30.03 25.55 28.50 66% 19 7 7 100% 30.03 32.08 28.50

HOJ3 Higher Dec 69.88 82.60 69.25 79.16 74% 23 11 10 91% 82.60 87.63 79.16

HOK3 Higher Dec 67.73 77.50 67.22 74.66 72% 23 9 8 89% 77.50 81.94 74.66

HUH3 Higher Dec 73.41 91.30 73.00 85.83 70% 17 9 9 100% 91.30 97.99 85.83

HUJ3 Higher Dec 80.24 93.70 80.01 90.00 73% 17 8 8 100% 93.70 100.27 90.00

HUK3 Higher Dec 80.10 92.10 79.76 88.25 69% 17 8 8 100% 92.10 98.95 88.25

NGH3 Higher Dec 4.048 5.180 4.020 4.692 58% 12 3 3 100% 5.180 5.745 4.692

NGJ3 Higher Dec 3.908 4.640 3.895 4.514 83% 12 3 3 100% 4.640 5.253 4.514

NGK3 Higher Dec 3.858 4.517 3.880 4.429 86% 12 3 3 100% 4.517 5.173 4.429

BOK3 Lower Dec 22.25 22.45 20.90 21.26 23% 43 25 21 84% 20.90 19.75 21.26

RRH3 Lower Dec 4.31 4.34 4.00 4.03 9% 16 9 8 89% Yes 3.65 4.03

LCG3 Higher Dec 78.475 79.900 77.100 79.635 91% 37 22 22 100% 79.900 85.922 79.635

LCJ3 Higher Dec 77.975 79.000 76.600 78.900 96% 35 22 21 95% 79.000 84.288 78.900

LCM3 Higher Dec 72.050 72.850 70.750 72.530 85% 38 25 23 92% 72.850 76.270 72.530

PBG3 Higher Dec 85.850 89.275 80.050 86.200 67% 37 16 14 88% 89.275 98.206 86.200

JOH3 Lower Dec 104.70 104.70 91.20 93.25 15% 35 24 22 92% 91.20 81.55 93.25

JOK3 Lower Dec 106.70 106.40 93.90 95.50 13% 35 24 22 92% 93.90 83.83 95.50

JOK3 Lower Dec 106.70 106.40 93.90 95.50 13% 35 24 22 92% 93.90 83.83 95.50

KCH3 Lower Dec 70.60 73.80 59.05 60.20 8% 29 12 11 92% 59.05 53.77 60.20

KCK3 Lower Dec 72.85 75.55 61.50 62.60 8% 29 12 12 100% 61.50 56.92 62.60

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 107~30(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 106~13(Month Low) to 113~26(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, USH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 113~26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 117~26(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 111~035(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 110~025(Month Low) to 115~175(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TYH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 115~175(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 119~013(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 98.520(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 98.460(Month Low) to 98.700(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, EDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 98.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 99.172(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 98.255(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 98.150(Month Low) to 98.660(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 98.660(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 99.216(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 63.69(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 63.08(Month Low) to 64.48(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CDH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should penetrate 63.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 61.95(Average Objective).
March Crude Oil(NYM): The CLH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 26.44(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 26.20(Month Low) to 32.80(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, CLH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should exceed 32.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 35.16(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 26.13(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 25.95(Month Low) to 31.30(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, CLJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should exceed 31.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 33.57(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 25.81(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 25.55(Month Low) to 30.03(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, CLK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 30.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 32.08(Average Objective).
April Heating Oil(NYM): The HOJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 69.88(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 69.25(Month Low) to 82.60(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, HOJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should exceed 82.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 87.63(Average Objective).
May Heating Oil(NYM): The HOK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 67.73(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 67.22(Month Low) to 77.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, HOK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should exceed 77.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 81.94(Average Objective).
March Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 73.41(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 73.00(Month Low) to 91.30(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, HUH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUH should exceed 91.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 97.99(Average Objective).
April Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 80.24(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 80.01(Month Low) to 93.70(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, HUJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUJ should exceed 93.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 100.27(Average Objective).
May Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 80.10(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 79.76(Month Low) to 92.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, HUK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUK should exceed 92.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 98.95(Average Objective).
March Natural Gas(NYM): The NGH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 4.048(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 4.020(Month Low) to 5.180(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, NGH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should exceed 5.180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 5.745(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 3.908(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.895(Month Low) to 4.640(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, NGJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should exceed 4.640(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 5.253(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 3.858(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 3.880(Month Low) to 4.517(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, NGK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 4.517(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 5.173(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 22.25(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 20.90(Month Low) to 22.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 20.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 19.75(Average Objective).
March Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 4.31(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 4.00(Month Low) to 4.34(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 4.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 3.65(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 78.475(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 77.100(Month Low) to 79.900(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCG went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 79.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 85.922(Average Objective).
April Live Cattle(CME): The LCJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 77.975(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 76.600(Month Low) to 79.000(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 79.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 84.288(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 72.050(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 70.750(Month Low) to 72.850(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LCM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 72.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 76.270(Average Objective).
February Pork Bellies(CME): The PBG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 85.850(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 80.050(Month Low) to 89.275(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, PBG went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should exceed 89.275(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 98.206(Average Objective).
March Orange Juice(NYBOT): The JOH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 104.70(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 91.20(Month Low) to 104.70(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 91.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 81.55(Average Objective).
May Orange Juice(NYBOT): The JOK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 106.70(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 93.90(Month Low) to 106.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should penetrate 93.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 83.83(Average Objective).
May Orange Juice(NYBOT): The JOK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 106.70(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 93.90(Month Low) to 106.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(NYBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should penetrate 93.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 83.83(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(NYBOT): The KCH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 70.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 59.05(Month Low) to 73.80(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, KCH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 59.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 53.77(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(NYBOT): The KCK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 72.85(Prev Close), the market ended December at (Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 61.50(Month Low) to 75.55(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 61.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 56.92(Average Objective).