MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI Logo

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary


MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Aug 30, 2002

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

#DJ Lower Aug 8737.00 9077.00 8031.00 8664.00 61% 45 19 16 84% 8031.00 7453.63 8664.00

#COMPX Higher Aug 1328.30 1426.80 1205.70 1335.80 59% 7 4 4 100% Yes 1493.36 1335.80

#RUT Lower Aug 392.42 410.92 367.12 390.96 54% 23 9 8 89% 367.12 335.25 390.96

#VLE Higher Aug 1018.40 1082.70 940.10 1031.40 64% 19 10 9 90% Yes 1096.73 1031.40

#SSNI Lower Aug 9878 10162 9439 9620 25% 20 9 8 89% Yes 8837 9620

NDZ2 Lower Aug 968.50 1056.50 868.50 947.50 42% 6 3 3 100% 868.50 767.88 947.50

USZ2 Higher Aug 104~24 111~04 104~16 109~22 78% 24 13 12 92% 111~04 116~00 109~22

TYZ2 Higher Aug 109~075 112~270 109~060 111~250 71% 20 12 11 92% 112~270 116~187 111~250

EDZ2 Higher Aug 98.140 98.420 98.140 98.220 29% 20 13 13 100% 98.420 99.193 98.220

EDH3 Higher Aug 97.930 98.320 97.930 98.060 33% 20 11 11 100% 98.320 99.142 98.060

CDZ2 Higher Aug 62.78 64.32 62.25 63.94 82% 25 13 12 92% 64.32 65.25 63.94

ADZ2 Higher Aug 53.53 54.92 52.02 54.57 88% 15 9 8 89% 54.92 56.31 54.57

PAZ2 Higher Aug 320.45 380.00 315.20 326.80 18% 25 8 7 88% 380.00 414.34 326.80

HOZ2 Higher Aug 70.87 78.45 68.50 77.80 93% 23 14 14 100% 78.45 85.70 77.80

HOF3 Higher Aug 71.32 78.70 69.25 78.10 94% 23 14 14 100% 78.70 85.50 78.10

HUZ2 Higher Aug 71.83 78.10 69.40 77.24 90% 17 11 10 91% 78.10 86.22 77.24

HUF3 Higher Aug 71.53 76.90 69.50 76.92 100% 17 10 9 90% 76.90 83.80 76.92

FCV2 Higher Aug 76.850 80.000 75.350 79.680 93% 30 18 16 89% 80.000 83.163 79.680

FCX2 Higher Aug 77.200 80.150 75.775 79.975 96% 30 17 15 88% 80.150 83.328 79.975

SBH3 Higher Aug 5.85 6.20 5.67 5.96 55% 41 19 17 89% 6.20 7.07 5.96

SBK3 Higher Aug 5.70 5.97 5.48 5.72 49% 41 18 16 89% 5.97 6.84 5.72

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 8737.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 8031.00(Month Low) to 9077.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed lower in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #DJ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should penetrate 8031.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 7453.63(Average Objective).
NASDAQ Composite Index: The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1328.30(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 1205.70(Month Low) to 1426.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 7 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed higher in August than July in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, the #COMPX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 1426.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 1493.36(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 392.42(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 367.12(Month Low) to 410.92(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed lower in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #RUT went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should penetrate 367.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 335.25(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1018.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 940.10(Month Low) to 1082.70(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in August than July in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, the #VLE went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 1082.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 1096.73(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 9878(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 9439(Month Low) to 10162(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #SSNI went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should penetrate 9439(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 8837(Average Objective).
December NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 968.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 868.50(Month Low) to 1056.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 6 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in August than July in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, NDZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should penetrate 868.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 767.88(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 104~24(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 104~16(Month Low) to 111~04(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 111~04(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 116~00(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 109~075(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 109~060(Month Low) to 112~270(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 112~270(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 116~187(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(IMM): The EDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 98.140(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 98.140(Month Low) to 98.420(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(IMM) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.420(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 99.193(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(IMM): The EDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.930(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 97.930(Month Low) to 98.320(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(IMM) also closed higher in August than July in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 98.320(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 99.142(Average Objective).
December Canadian Dollar(IMM): The CDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 62.78(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 62.25(Month Low) to 64.32(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(IMM) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should exceed 64.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 65.25(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(IMM): The ADZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 53.53(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 52.02(Month Low) to 54.92(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(IMM) also closed higher in August than July in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, ADZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 54.92(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 56.31(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYME): The PAZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 320.45(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 315.20(Month Low) to 380.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYME) also closed higher in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 380.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 414.34(Average Objective).
December Heating Oil(NYM): The HOZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 70.87(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 68.50(Month Low) to 78.45(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 78.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 85.70(Average Objective).
January Heating Oil(NYM): The HOF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 71.32(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 69.25(Month Low) to 78.70(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should exceed 78.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 85.50(Average Objective).
December Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 71.83(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 69.40(Month Low) to 78.10(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, HUZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUZ should exceed 78.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 86.22(Average Objective).
January Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 71.53(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 69.50(Month Low) to 76.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, HUF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUF should exceed 76.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 83.80(Average Objective).
October Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 76.850(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 75.350(Month Low) to 80.000(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, FCV went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 80.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 83.163(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 77.200(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 75.775(Month Low) to 80.150(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FCX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 80.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 83.328(Average Objective).
March Sugar #11(NYBOT): The SBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5.85(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 5.67(Month Low) to 6.20(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(NYBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 6.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 7.07(Average Objective).
May Sugar #11(NYBOT): The SBK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 5.70(Prev Close), the market ended August at (Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 5.48(Month Low) to 5.97(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Sugar #11(NYBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBK went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBK should exceed 5.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 6.84(Average Objective).