MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary


MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Jul 31, 2002

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

#TRAN Lower Jul 2731.60 2734.10 2090.30 2370.10 43% 32 17 15 88% 2090.30 1869.29 2370.10

USU2 Higher Jul 102~25 107~26 102~08 105~30 66% 24 12 11 92% 107~26 111~11 105~30

TYU2 Higher Jul 107~075 111~310 106~280 110~195 73% 20 11 11 100% 111~310 114~145 110~195

EDU2 Higher Jul 98.045 98.345 98.035 98.210 56% 20 14 14 100% 98.345 98.668 98.210

EDZ2 Higher Jul 97.730 98.285 97.680 98.140 76% 20 12 12 100% 98.285 98.881 98.140

GCQ2 Lower Jul 313.9 326.0 300.5 303.2 11% 27 16 14 88% 300.5 281.6 303.2

PAU2 Higher Jul 318.80 336.00 314.50 319.45 23% 25 14 13 93% 336.00 359.25 319.45

CLF3 Higher Jul 25.79 26.64 25.10 26.22 73% 19 12 11 92% 26.64 28.76 26.22

BOZ2 Higher Jul 18.84 20.82 18.19 20.46 86% 42 19 16 84% 20.82 22.90 20.46

BOF3 Higher Jul 19.01 20.82 18.38 20.48 86% 42 19 16 84% 20.82 22.80 20.48

WZ2 Higher Jul 323.50 352.00 324.00 344.00 71% 42 20 17 85% 352.00 388.59 344.00

LCV2 Higher Jul 65.475 68.700 65.475 67.750 71% 37 21 20 95% 68.700 71.582 67.750

FCX2 Higher Jul 76.500 79.400 76.100 77.200 33% 30 17 15 88% 79.400 82.914 77.200

LEV2 Higher Jul 38.800 43.850 39.600 41.700 49% 32 17 16 94% 43.850 46.943 41.700

PBG3 Higher Jul 62.250 67.550 62.050 63.925 34% 37 21 19 90% 67.550 74.571 63.925

PBH3 Higher Jul 60.000 65.000 61.500 63.300 51% 38 20 19 95% 65.000 71.327 63.300

CTV2 Lower Jul 47.96 48.20 43.20 46.95 75% 41 22 20 91% 43.20 40.20 46.95

CTH3 Lower Jul 51.35 51.70 46.65 50.25 71% 41 20 17 85% 46.65 43.74 50.25

Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2731.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 2090.30(Month Low) to 2734.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 2090.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1869.29(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 102~25(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 102~08(Month Low) to 107~26(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, USU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 107~26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 111~11(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 107~075(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 106~280(Month Low) to 111~310(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, TYU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 111~310(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 114~145(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(IMM): The EDU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 98.045(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 98.035(Month Low) to 98.345(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(IMM) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 98.345(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 98.668(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(IMM): The EDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 97.730(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 97.680(Month Low) to 98.285(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(IMM) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.285(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 98.881(Average Objective).
August Gold(CMX): The GCQ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 313.9(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 300.5(Month Low) to 326.0(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gold(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, GCQ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCQ should penetrate 300.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 281.6(Average Objective).
September Palladium(NYME): The PAU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 318.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 314.50(Month Low) to 336.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Palladium(NYME) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, PAU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAU should exceed 336.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 359.25(Average Objective).
January Crude Oil(NYM): The CLF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 25.79(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 25.10(Month Low) to 26.64(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CLF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 26.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 28.76(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 18.84(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 18.19(Month Low) to 20.82(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should exceed 20.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 22.90(Average Objective).
January Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 19.01(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 18.38(Month Low) to 20.82(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should exceed 20.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 22.80(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 323.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 324.00(Month Low) to 352.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should exceed 352.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 388.59(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 65.475(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 65.475(Month Low) to 68.700(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 68.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 71.582(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 76.500(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 76.100(Month Low) to 79.400(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FCX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 79.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 82.914(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 38.800(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 39.600(Month Low) to 43.850(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 43.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 46.943(Average Objective).
February Pork Bellies(CME): The PBG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 62.250(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 62.050(Month Low) to 67.550(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, PBG went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should exceed 67.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 74.571(Average Objective).
March Pork Bellies(CME): The PBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 60.000(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 61.500(Month Low) to 65.000(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PBH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBH should exceed 65.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 71.327(Average Objective).
October Cotton(NYBOT): The CTV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 47.96(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 43.20(Month Low) to 48.20(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(NYBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 43.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 40.20(Average Objective).
March Cotton(NYBOT): The CTH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 51.35(Prev Close), the market ended July at (Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 46.65(Month Low) to 51.70(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(NYBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 46.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 43.74(Average Objective).