MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary


MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Scenario^SM Summary Oct 31, 2001

Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month Prev
Close Month
High Month
Low Month
Close Pct
Range Total
Years Cond
Years Action
Years
Pct Scenario
Objective Average
Objective Last
Price

#DJ Higher Oct 8847.00 9598.00 8732.00 9075.00 40% 45 26 24 92% 9598.00 10065.44 9075.00

#TRAN Higher Oct 2194.70 2318.10 2119.80 2195.80 38% 31 20 18 90% 2318.10 2473.81 2195.80

#NDX Higher Oct 1168.40 1487.40 1131.30 1364.80 66% 15 9 9 100% 1487.40 1631.46 1364.80

#COMPX Higher Oct 1498.80 1792.90 1458.40 1690.20 69% 6 2 2 100% 1792.90 2202.43 1690.20

#RUT Higher Oct 404.87 439.81 393.00 428.17 75% 22 10 9 90% 439.81 471.82 428.17

#SP Higher Oct 1040.95 1110.60 1026.75 1059.80 39% 45 27 25 93% 1110.60 1165.49 1059.80

NDH2 Higher Oct 1181.00 1494.00 1165.50 1376.00 64% 5 3 3 100% 1494.00 1805.37 1376.00

USH2 Higher Oct 104~19 110~09 104~05 109~14 86% 24 14 12 86% 110~09 115~10 109~14

TYH2 Higher Oct 107~225 110~165 107~085 110~130 97% 19 13 13 100% 110~165 113~137 110~130

JYH2 Lower Oct 84.67 84.13 82.00 82.40 19% 25 13 12 92% 82.00 79.54 82.40

ADH2 Higher Oct 48.75 51.24 49.14 50.01 41% 14 7 6 86% 51.24 53.15 50.01

GCG2 Lower Oct 294.4 295.0 276.5 281.1 25% 26 16 14 88% 276.5 261.7 281.1

GCJ2 Lower Oct 294.8 295.8 276.5 281.5 26% 26 16 14 88% 276.5 261.6 281.5

CLG2 Lower Oct 23.84 24.30 21.17 21.46 9% 18 9 8 89% 21.17 18.79 21.46

CLH2 Lower Oct 23.86 24.15 21.33 21.53 7% 18 9 8 89% 21.33 19.06 21.53

CLJ2 Lower Oct 23.83 23.86 21.45 21.57 5% 17 9 8 89% 21.45 19.00 21.57

HOH2 Lower Oct 66.49 67.30 60.30 60.54 3% 22 9 8 89% 60.30 52.38 60.54

HOJ2 Lower Oct 65.04 66.25 59.50 59.54 1% 21 9 8 89% 59.50 52.35 59.54

BOK2 Lower Oct 16.40 16.58 15.52 16.15 59% 42 21 18 86% 15.52 14.54 16.15

RRH2 Lower Oct 4.52 4.56 3.98 4.05 12% 15 7 6 86% 3.98 3.69 4.05

LEJ2 Higher Oct 55.125 57.125 51.750 55.250 65% 32 17 15 88% 57.125 61.998 55.250

KCH2 Lower Oct 51.10 50.80 44.90 46.35 25% 28 13 11 85% 44.90 40.32 46.35

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 8847.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 8732.00(Month Low) to 9598.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 9598.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 10065.44(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2194.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 2119.80(Month Low) to 2318.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 2318.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2473.81(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1168.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 1131.30(Month Low) to 1487.40(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1487.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 1631.46(Average Objective).
NASDAQ Composite Index: The #COMPX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1498.80(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 1458.40(Month Low) to 1792.90(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 6 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ Composite Index also closed higher in October than September in 2(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 2, the #COMPX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 2 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #COMPX should exceed 1792.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 2 years) a potential move toward 2202.43(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 404.87(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 393.00(Month Low) to 439.81(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 439.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 471.82(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1040.95(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 1026.75(Month Low) to 1110.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1110.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1165.49(Average Objective).
March NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1181.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 1165.50(Month Low) to 1494.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 5 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, NDH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 1494.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 1805.37(Average Objective).
March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 104~19(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 104~05(Month Low) to 110~09(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, USH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 110~09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 115~10(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 107~225(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 107~085(Month Low) to 110~165(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TYH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 110~165(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 113~137(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(IMM): The JYH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 84.67(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 82.00(Month Low) to 84.13(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(IMM) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 82.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 79.54(Average Objective).
March Australian Dollar(IMM): The ADH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 48.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 49.14(Month Low) to 51.24(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(IMM) also closed higher in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 51.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 53.15(Average Objective).
February Gold(CMX): The GCG2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 294.4(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 276.5(Month Low) to 295.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gold(CMX) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, GCG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCG should penetrate 276.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 261.7(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 294.8(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 276.5(Month Low) to 295.8(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, GCJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should penetrate 276.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 261.6(Average Objective).
February Crude Oil(NYM): The CLG2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 23.84(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 21.17(Month Low) to 24.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 21.17(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 18.79(Average Objective).
March Crude Oil(NYM): The CLH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 23.86(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 21.33(Month Low) to 24.15(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 21.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 19.06(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 23.83(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 21.45(Month Low) to 23.86(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, CLJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 21.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 19.00(Average Objective).
March Heating Oil(NYM): The HOH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 66.49(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 60.30(Month Low) to 67.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 60.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 52.38(Average Objective).
April Heating Oil(NYM): The HOJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 65.04(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 59.50(Month Low) to 66.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, HOJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 59.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 52.35(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 16.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 15.52(Month Low) to 16.58(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, BOK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 15.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 14.54(Average Objective).
March Rough Rice(MCE): The RRH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 4.52(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 3.98(Month Low) to 4.56(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(MCE) also closed lower in October than September in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, RRH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 3.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 3.69(Average Objective).
April Lean Hogs(CME): The LEJ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 55.125(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 51.750(Month Low) to 57.125(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 57.125(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 61.998(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(NYBOT): The KCH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 51.10(Prev Close), the market ended October at (Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 44.90(Month Low) to 50.80(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 44.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 40.32(Average Objective).