 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary
|
Copyright © 1991-2000 Moore Research Center, Inc.
| ScenarioSM Summary Apr 28, 2000 |
| Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev
Close |
Month
High |
Month
Low |
Month
Close |
Pct
Range |
Total
Years |
Cond
Years |
Action
Years |
Pct |
Scenario
Objective |
Average
Objective |
Last
Price |
| TYM0 |
Lower |
Apr |
98~025 |
99~300 |
96~150 |
96~305 |
14% |
17 |
8 |
7 |
88% |
96~150 |
93~154 |
96~305 |
| EDU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
93.060 |
93.340 |
92.885 |
92.900 |
3% |
18 |
7 |
7 |
100% |
92.885 |
92.463 |
92.900 |
| SFM0 |
Lower |
Apr |
60.55 |
62.55 |
57.76 |
58.27 |
11% |
24 |
13 |
11 |
85% |
57.76 |
55.35 |
58.27 |
| DMM0 |
Lower |
Apr |
49.12 |
50.10 |
46.49 |
46.70 |
6% |
24 |
11 |
11 |
100% |
46.49 |
45.02 |
46.70 |
| DMU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
49.43 |
49.83 |
47.00 |
47.00 |
0% |
25 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
47.00 |
45.23 |
47.00 |
| BPM0 |
Lower |
Apr |
159.40 |
160.90 |
155.22 |
155.30 |
1% |
24 |
11 |
10 |
91% |
155.22 |
149.95 |
155.30 |
| BPU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
159.50 |
161.10 |
155.60 |
155.70 |
2% |
25 |
13 |
13 |
100% |
155.60 |
148.10 |
155.70 |
| CDM0 |
Lower |
Apr |
69.11 |
69.15 |
67.22 |
67.58 |
19% |
23 |
9 |
8 |
89% |
67.22 |
66.54 |
67.58 |
| CDU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
69.27 |
69.26 |
67.39 |
67.76 |
20% |
23 |
9 |
8 |
89% |
67.39 |
66.54 |
67.76 |
| CLN0 |
Lower |
Apr |
26.04 |
26.20 |
23.00 |
25.53 |
79% |
17 |
5 |
5 |
100% |
23.00 |
20.91 |
25.53 |
| SN0 |
Lower |
Apr |
557.50 |
566.00 |
533.00 |
539.25 |
19% |
40 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
533.00 |
509.02 |
539.25 |
| SQ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
560.00 |
569.00 |
537.00 |
542.00 |
16% |
38 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
537.00 |
510.32 |
542.00 |
| SMU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
175.20 |
177.00 |
168.40 |
171.40 |
35% |
39 |
17 |
16 |
94% |
168.40 |
160.38 |
171.40 |
| SMZ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
178.30 |
180.20 |
170.70 |
172.90 |
23% |
37 |
19 |
17 |
89% |
170.70 |
161.28 |
172.90 |
| CN0 |
Lower |
Apr |
244.50 |
248.00 |
231.50 |
232.00 |
3% |
40 |
23 |
20 |
87% |
231.50 |
215.53 |
232.00 |
| CU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
252.00 |
254.75 |
239.50 |
240.25 |
5% |
40 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
239.50 |
222.11 |
240.25 |
| CZ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
260.50 |
264.25 |
248.75 |
249.50 |
5% |
40 |
21 |
19 |
90% |
248.75 |
232.27 |
249.50 |
| WN0 |
Lower |
Apr |
274.25 |
278.50 |
253.00 |
254.75 |
7% |
40 |
20 |
19 |
95% |
253.00 |
234.83 |
254.75 |
| WU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
285.00 |
289.00 |
265.50 |
266.50 |
4% |
40 |
19 |
18 |
95% |
265.50 |
248.51 |
266.50 |
| WZ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
300.75 |
304.50 |
280.75 |
282.00 |
5% |
40 |
19 |
18 |
95% |
280.75 |
263.96 |
282.00 |
| KWN0 |
Lower |
Apr |
297.75 |
301.50 |
281.00 |
281.75 |
4% |
23 |
10 |
10 |
100% |
281.00 |
266.54 |
281.75 |
| KWU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
306.50 |
309.00 |
292.00 |
292.50 |
3% |
23 |
11 |
10 |
91% |
292.00 |
277.21 |
292.50 |
| KWZ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
320.50 |
323.50 |
306.25 |
307.75 |
9% |
23 |
11 |
10 |
91% |
306.25 |
290.89 |
307.75 |
| MWZ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
359.00 |
360.75 |
345.25 |
346.50 |
8% |
19 |
7 |
6 |
86% |
345.25 |
326.85 |
346.50 |
| LCQ0 |
Lower |
Apr |
69.725 |
70.400 |
69.075 |
69.650 |
43% |
35 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
69.075 |
65.390 |
69.650 |
| LEN0 |
Higher |
Apr |
71.300 |
74.900 |
69.700 |
74.250 |
87% |
30 |
21 |
19 |
90% |
74.900 |
80.607 |
74.250 |
| PBQ0 |
Higher |
Apr |
91.000 |
95.300 |
87.000 |
93.300 |
76% |
37 |
19 |
16 |
84% |
95.300 |
105.408 |
93.300 |
| KCU0 |
Lower |
Apr |
108.95 |
108.50 |
98.50 |
101.00 |
25% |
26 |
12 |
11 |
92% |
98.50 |
85.52 |
101.00 |
- June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
- The TYM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 98~025(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 14%(Pct Range) off of
96~150(Month Low) to 99~300(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 8(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 8, TYM went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 96~150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move
toward 93~154(Average Objective).
- September Eurodollars(IMM)
- The EDU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 93.060(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 3%(Pct Range) off of
92.885(Month Low) to 93.340(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 7(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 7, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 92.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move
toward 92.463(Average Objective).
- June Swiss Franc(IMM)
- The SFM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 60.55(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 11%(Pct Range) off of
57.76(Month Low) to 62.55(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, SFM went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 57.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 55.35(Average Objective).
- June Deutsche Mark(IMM)
- The DMM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 49.12(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 6%(Pct Range) off of
46.49(Month Low) to 50.10(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Deutsche Mark(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 11, DMM went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DMM should penetrate 46.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 45.02(Average Objective).
- September Deutsche Mark(IMM)
- The DMU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 49.43(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 0%(Pct Range) off of
47.00(Month Low) to 49.83(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Deutsche Mark(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, DMU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DMU should penetrate 47.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 45.23(Average Objective).
- June British Pound(IMM)
- The BPM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 159.40(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 1%(Pct Range) off of
155.22(Month Low) to 160.90(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June British Pound(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 11, BPM went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPM should penetrate 155.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move
toward 149.95(Average Objective).
- September British Pound(IMM)
- The BPU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 159.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 2%(Pct Range) off of
155.60(Month Low) to 161.10(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September British Pound(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, BPU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPU should penetrate 155.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 148.10(Average Objective).
- June Canadian Dollar(IMM)
- The CDM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 69.11(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 19%(Pct Range) off of
67.22(Month Low) to 69.15(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 9, CDM went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should penetrate 67.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move
toward 66.54(Average Objective).
- September Canadian Dollar(IMM)
- The CDU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 69.27(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 20%(Pct Range) off of
67.39(Month Low) to 69.26(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(IMM) also closed
lower in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 9, CDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should penetrate 67.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move
toward 66.54(Average Objective).
- July Crude Oil(NYM)
- The CLN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 26.04(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 79%(Pct Range) off of
23.00(Month Low) to 26.20(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed
lower in April than March in 5(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 5, CLN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should penetrate 23.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move
toward 20.91(Average Objective).
- July Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 557.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 19%(Pct Range) off of
533.00(Month Low) to 566.00(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, SN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should penetrate 533.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 509.02(Average Objective).
- August Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 560.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 16%(Pct Range) off of
537.00(Month Low) to 569.00(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, SQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 537.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 510.32(Average Objective).
- September Soybean Meal(CBOT)
- The SMU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 175.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 35%(Pct Range) off of
168.40(Month Low) to 177.00(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 17, SMU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 168.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 160.38(Average Objective).
- December Soybean Meal(CBOT)
- The SMZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 178.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 23%(Pct Range) off of
170.70(Month Low) to 180.20(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, SMZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 170.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 161.28(Average Objective).
- July Corn(CBOT)
- The CN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 244.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 3%(Pct Range) off of
231.50(Month Low) to 248.00(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, CN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 231.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 215.53(Average Objective).
- September Corn(CBOT)
- The CU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 252.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 5%(Pct Range) off of
239.50(Month Low) to 254.75(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, CU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 239.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 222.11(Average Objective).
- December Corn(CBOT)
- The CZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 260.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 5%(Pct Range) off of
248.75(Month Low) to 264.25(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, CZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 248.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 232.27(Average Objective).
- July Wheat(CBOT)
- The WN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 274.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 7%(Pct Range) off of
253.00(Month Low) to 278.50(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, WN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 253.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 234.83(Average Objective).
- September Wheat(CBOT)
- The WU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 285.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 4%(Pct Range) off of
265.50(Month Low) to 289.00(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, WU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 265.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 248.51(Average Objective).
- December Wheat(CBOT)
- The WZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 300.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 5%(Pct Range) off of
280.75(Month Low) to 304.50(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed
lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, WZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 280.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 263.96(Average Objective).
- July Wheat(KCBT)
- The KWN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 297.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 4%(Pct Range) off of
281.00(Month Low) to 301.50(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed
lower in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 10, KWN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 281.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move
toward 266.54(Average Objective).
- September Wheat(KCBT)
- The KWU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 306.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 3%(Pct Range) off of
292.00(Month Low) to 309.00(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed
lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 11, KWU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 292.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move
toward 277.21(Average Objective).
- December Wheat(KCBT)
- The KWZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 320.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 9%(Pct Range) off of
306.25(Month Low) to 323.50(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed
lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 11, KWZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 306.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move
toward 290.89(Average Objective).
- December Wheat(MGE)
- The MWZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 359.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 8%(Pct Range) off of
345.25(Month Low) to 360.75(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(MGE) also closed
lower in April than March in 7(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 7, MWZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWZ should penetrate 345.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move
toward 326.85(Average Objective).
- August Live Cattle(CME)
- The LCQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 69.725(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 43%(Pct Range) off of
69.075(Month Low) to 70.400(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed
lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, LCQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 69.075(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 65.390(Average Objective).
- July Lean Hogs(CME)
- The LEN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 71.300(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 87%(Pct Range) off of
69.700(Month Low) to 74.900(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed
higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, LEN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 74.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 80.607(Average Objective).
- August Pork Bellies(CME)
- The PBQ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 91.000(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 76%(Pct Range) off of
87.000(Month Low) to 95.300(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Pork Bellies(CME) also closed
higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, PBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBQ should exceed 95.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 105.408(Average Objective).
- September Coffee "C"(CSCE)
- The KCU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
April(Month). Compared to March's 108.95(Prev Close), the market ended April at (Month Close),
that being 25%(Pct Range) off of
98.50(Month Low) to 108.50(Month High).
In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(CSCE) also closed
lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 12, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 98.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move
toward 85.52(Average Objective).