MRCI's Scenario Summary-February, 2000

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1991-2000 Moore Research Center, Inc.
Scenario^SM Summary Feb 29, 2000
Historical Data								Scenario Data				Current Market Data
Mkt	Cond	Month	Prev Close	Month High	Month Low	Month Close	Pct Range	Total Years	Cond Years	Action Years	Pct	Scenario Objective	Average Objective	Last Price
#NDX	Higher	Feb	3570.10	4297.50	3544.90	4266.90	96%	14	9	8	89%	4297.50	4638.43	4266.90
#MID	Higher	Feb	431.79	461.79	429.46	461.48	99%	19	12	11	92%	461.79	487.12	461.48
#SSNI	Higher	Feb	19540.00	20046.00	19267.00	19720.00	58%	18	8	7	88%	Yes	21362.32	19720.00
#T35	Higher	Feb	474.99	527.06	470.31	492.36	39%	18	8	8	100%	Yes	562.80	492.36
TYM⁰	Higher	Feb	94~125	96~135	93~255	95~130	61%	17	7	6	86%	96~135	97~256	95~130
EDU⁰	Higher	Feb	93.020	93.275	92.930	93.170	70%	17	7	6	86%	93.275	93.662	93.170
SFM⁰	Lower	Feb	61.23	63.47	60.55	60.86	11%	24	12	11	92%	60.55	58.37	60.86
SFU⁰	Lower	Feb	61.85	64.00	61.05	61.39	12%	24	12	11	92%	61.05	58.92	61.39
CLK⁰	Higher	Feb	25.97	29.01	25.90	28.85	95%	16	7	6	86%	29.01	32.42	28.85
CLM⁰	Higher	Feb	25.32	27.85	25.33	27.68	93%	16	7	6	86%	27.85	30.83	27.68
CLN⁰	Higher	Feb	24.71	26.85	24.75	26.74	95%	16	7	6	86%	26.85	29.35	26.74
HUK⁰	Higher	Feb	77.61	89.50	78.00	88.90	95%	14	3	3	100%	89.50	108.91	88.90
HUM⁰	Higher	Feb	75.94	85.30	75.95	84.65	93%	14	3	3	100%	85.30	99.40	84.65
HUN⁰	Higher	Feb	73.89	81.30	74.05	80.85	94%	14	3	3	100%	81.30	94.16	80.85
SMK⁰	Higher	Feb	164.40	172.50	160.10	165.30	42%	40	14	13	93%	172.50	190.42	165.30
SMN⁰	Higher	Feb	166.00	174.50	162.50	166.90	37%	40	14	13	93%	174.50	190.34	166.90
SMQ⁰	Higher	Feb	166.40	175.00	163.30	168.20	42%	40	16	14	88%	175.00	189.72	168.20
SMU⁰	Higher	Feb	166.30	175.30	163.50	168.20	40%	38	18	16	89%	175.30	186.03	168.20
SMV⁰	Higher	Feb	166.80	175.50	163.00	168.10	41%	38	22	19	86%	175.50	184.39	168.10
KWK⁰	Lower	Feb	294.00	313.50	285.00	288.00	11%	23	14	12	86%	285.00	270.87	288.00
PBK⁰	Higher	Feb	87.200	92.650	84.100	91.650	88%	35	11	10	91%	92.650	107.264	91.650
PBN⁰	Higher	Feb	84.900	89.500	83.000	88.450	84%	35	11	10	91%	89.500	103.521	88.450
PBQ⁰	Higher	Feb	81.550	86.350	81.275	85.280	79%	37	11	10	91%	86.350	100.361	85.280
JON⁰	Higher	Feb	79.45	86.40	79.00	82.60	49%	32	12	11	92%	86.40	93.16	82.60
JOX⁰	Higher	Feb	79.45	86.20	79.40	82.45	45%	30	8	7	88%	86.20	93.05	82.45
CCZ⁰	Lower	Feb	915	910	840	858	26%	40	25	21	84%	840	764	858
LBK⁰	Lower	Feb	338.9	349.2	331.6	335.2	20%	26	15	13	87%	331.6	304.8	335.2
LBU⁰	Lower	Feb	335.2	340.3	331.5	334.9	39%	27	15	13	87%	331.5	309.8	334.9
CTN⁰	Higher	Feb	60.02	63.00	58.00	60.21	44%	40	21	18	86%	63.00	66.71	60.21

NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 3570.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 3544.90(Month Low) to 4297.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in February than January in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, the #NDX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4297.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 4638.43(Average Objective).
Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 431.79(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 429.46(Month Low) to 461.79(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #MID went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 461.79(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 487.12(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 19540.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 19267.00(Month Low) to 20046.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, the #SSNI went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 20046.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 21362.32(Average Objective).
Toronto 35 Index: The #T35(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 474.99(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 470.31(Month Low) to 527.06(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Toronto 35 Index also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, the #T35 went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #T35 should exceed 527.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 562.80(Average Objective).
June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYM⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 94~125(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 93~255(Month Low) to 96~135(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, TYM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should exceed 96~135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 97~256(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(IMM): The EDU⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 93.020(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 92.930(Month Low) to 93.275(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(IMM) also closed higher in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, EDU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 93.275(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 93.662(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(IMM): The SFM⁰(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 61.23(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 60.55(Month Low) to 63.47(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(IMM) also closed lower in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SFM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 60.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 58.37(Average Objective).
September Swiss Franc(IMM): The SFU⁰(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 61.85(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 61.05(Month Low) to 64.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(IMM) also closed lower in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SFU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should penetrate 61.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 58.92(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 25.97(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 25.90(Month Low) to 29.01(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, CLK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 29.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 32.42(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 25.32(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 25.33(Month Low) to 27.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, CLM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 27.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 30.83(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 24.71(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 24.75(Month Low) to 26.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, CLN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 26.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 29.35(Average Objective).
May Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUK⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 77.61(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 78.00(Month Low) to 89.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, HUK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUK should exceed 89.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 108.91(Average Objective).
June Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUM⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 75.94(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 75.95(Month Low) to 85.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, HUM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUM should exceed 85.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 99.40(Average Objective).
July Unleaded Gas(NYM): The HUN⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 73.89(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 74.05(Month Low) to 81.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Unleaded Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, HUN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HUN should exceed 81.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 94.16(Average Objective).
May Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMK⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 164.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 160.10(Month Low) to 172.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SMK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should exceed 172.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 190.42(Average Objective).
July Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMN⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 166.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 162.50(Month Low) to 174.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SMN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should exceed 174.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 190.34(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 166.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 163.30(Month Low) to 175.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SMQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should exceed 175.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 189.72(Average Objective).
September Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMU⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 166.30(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 163.50(Month Low) to 175.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SMU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should exceed 175.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 186.03(Average Objective).
October Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMV⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 166.80(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 163.00(Month Low) to 175.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMV went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should exceed 175.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 184.39(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK⁰(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 294.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 285.00(Month Low) to 313.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KWK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 285.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 270.87(Average Objective).
May Pork Bellies(CME): The PBK⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 87.200(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 84.100(Month Low) to 92.650(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, PBK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBK should exceed 92.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 107.264(Average Objective).
July Pork Bellies(CME): The PBN⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 84.900(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 83.000(Month Low) to 89.500(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, PBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBN should exceed 89.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 103.521(Average Objective).
August Pork Bellies(CME): The PBQ⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 81.550(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 81.275(Month Low) to 86.350(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Pork Bellies(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, PBQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBQ should exceed 86.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 100.361(Average Objective).
July Orange Juice(CTN): The JON⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 79.45(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 79.00(Month Low) to 86.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Orange Juice(CTN) also closed higher in February than January in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, JON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JON should exceed 86.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 93.16(Average Objective).
November Orange Juice(CTN): The JOX⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 79.45(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 79.40(Month Low) to 86.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(CTN) also closed higher in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, JOX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 86.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 93.05(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(CSCE): The CCZ⁰(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 915(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 840(Month Low) to 910(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(CSCE) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CCZ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 840(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 764(Average Objective).
May Lumber(CME): The LBK⁰(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 338.9(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 331.6(Month Low) to 349.2(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LBK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should penetrate 331.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 304.8(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU⁰(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 335.2(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 331.5(Month Low) to 340.3(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LBU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 331.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 309.8(Average Objective).
July Cotton(CTN): The CTN⁰(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 60.02(Prev Close), the market ended February at (Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 58.00(Month Low) to 63.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(CTN) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CTN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 63.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 66.71(Average Objective).