MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September NYSE Composite(NYBOT) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	22	22	22
Closed Higher	12	12	16	13	13	14	13	14	14	8	14
Exceeded High	9	10	14	13	10	12	12	12	10	8	10
Scenario Percentage	75%	83%	88%	100%	77%	86%	92%	86%	71%	100%	71%
Avg Max Increase	7.27%	3.90%	5.56%	4.78%	5.38%	5.80%	5.31%	4.04%	5.59%	2.94%	2.41%
Max Increase	13.70%	6.82%	12.14%	13.28%	8.98%	12.88%	12.55%	11.60%	10.76%	5.46%	5.57%
Avg Days To Max Increase	22	13	14	14	16	18	16	15	19	13	8
Avg Max Decline	-0.55%	-2.00%	-1.75%	-1.44%	-0.38%	-1.41%	-1.27%	-1.23%	-2.80%	-2.13%	-0.67%
Max Decline	-4.50%	-5.15%	-5.29%	-4.07%	-1.58%	-5.86%	-4.78%	-4.01%	-12.80%	-3.64%	-2.43%
Avg Days to Max Decline	13	14	6	6	4	9	6	8	13	11	3
2003 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	No				Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	22	22	22
Closed Lower	7	7	4	7	7	6	7	6	8	14	8
Penetrated Low	3	3	2	5	3	5	3	3	4	9	5
Scenario Percentage	43%	43%	50%	71%	43%	83%	43%	50%	50%	64%	63%
Avg Max Decline	4.06%	1.98%	8.09%	5.56%	7.43%	3.09%	4.71%	10.79%	11.09%	8.95%	17.91%
Max Decline	6.80%	3.61%	8.77%	8.02%	10.28%	4.13%	10.81%	26.65%	21.42%	17.12%	32.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	12	17	19	12	8	14	21	26	13	18
Avg Max Increase	-1.18%	-1.79%	-3.85%	-0.77%	-0.81%	-1.44%	-1.46%	-1.42%	-2.05%	-1.79%	-3.89%
Max Increase	-2.44%	-4.11%	-4.65%	-2.36%	-2.05%	-5.49%	-2.27%	-3.40%	-3.70%	-8.26%	-8.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	7	8	4	9	6	9	11	8	4	9
2003 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes
High	482.00	494.50	493.50	492.60	458.60	471.50	486.00	513.10	539.00	536.75	536.50
Low	421.00	466.75	466.60	448.35	435.85	425.00	457.50	485.50	516.00	517.75	511.50
Close/Last	471.05	493.65	470.70	457.30	445.95	454.55	485.60	513.10	521.10	525.40	535.30