MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for NYSE Composite Index as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20
Closed Higher	13	13	13	12	14	11	7	11	6	13	13
Exceeded High	13	11	11	10	11	9	7	6	6	9	11
Scenario Percentage	100%	85%	85%	83%	79%	82%	100%	55%	100%	69%	85%
Avg Max Increase	5.18%	4.98%	4.79%	4.70%	5.38%	5.41%	3.14%	3.00%	6.55%	6.94%	2.98%
Max Increase	13.84%	8.26%	8.57%	12.52%	12.25%	10.17%	5.54%	8.12%	15.64%	11.58%	4.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	15	19	19	19	18	21	14	23	18	13
Avg Max Decline	-1.16%	-0.99%	-1.90%	-1.94%	-1.48%	-1.67%	-2.47%	-1.40%	-2.80%	-1.46%	-0.82%
Max Decline	-4.30%	-2.38%	-4.94%	-4.53%	-3.93%	-7.57%	-5.86%	-3.55%	-8.29%	-4.94%	-3.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	7	6	8	10	7	14	12	7	8	3
2003 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20
Closed Lower	6	6	6	7	5	8	12	8	13	6	7
Penetrated Low	4	2	4	1	3	4	7	7	9		7
Scenario Percentage	67%	33%	67%	14%	60%	50%	58%	88%	69%	0%	100%
Avg Max Decline	5.08%	9.44%	2.89%	10.26%	10.27%	10.50%	10.57%	6.84%	7.90%		9.74%
Max Decline	7.50%	12.17%	3.68%	10.26%	26.63%	21.44%	19.81%	15.85%	32.02%		19.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	13	11	26	21	26	20	16	16		11
Avg Max Increase	-1.02%	-1.41%	-1.58%	-2.02%	-1.99%	-2.64%	-1.71%	-3.82%	-2.50%		-4.31%
Max Increase	-2.12%	-1.98%	-4.71%	-2.02%	-3.11%	-5.37%	-7.36%	-9.65%	-4.05%		-9.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	13	7	17	7	9	10	14	11		23
2003 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes							Yes
Action	Yes	Yes							Not Yet
High	496.80	463.20	473.80	490.00	514.80	541.30	537.80	536.50	549.70	550.70
Low	450.70	432.40	421.50	452.30	480.40	514.70	515.10	512.70	526.60	530.30
Close/Last	459.50	447.80	452.50	487.80	514.70	521.10	526.30	535.50	530.10	544.00