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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of Jul 08, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 31 41 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher 18 22 29 20 19 19 12 16 21 18 15
Exceeded High 13 17 20 13 12 16 7 11 17 11 7
Scenario Percentage 72% 77% 69% 65% 63% 84% 58% 69% 81% 61% 47%
Avg Max Increase 7.68% 6.53% 6.09% 9.24% 8.64% 6.43% 13.08% 10.09% 12.31% 13.12% 5.42%
Max Increase 19.84% 10.67% 30.19% 28.79% 28.15% 19.63% 37.07% 35.10% 39.86% 32.52% 9.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase 16 12 17 18 15 16 21 16 16 12 8
Avg Max Decline -2.41% -1.35% -1.54% -1.96% -2.32% -1.96% -2.26% -2.91% -1.83% -1.39% -1.30%
Max Decline -7.14% -3.92% -7.47% -5.96% -9.19% -8.18% -5.50% -7.75% -9.71% -3.37% -3.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 8 11 10 8 9 10 11 6 6 1
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes       Yes       Yes  
Action Yes No       Yes       Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 31 41 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower 13 18 14 23 23 24 28 26 22 25 27
Penetrated Low 9 10 10 16 15 21 21 20 19 23 16
Scenario Percentage 69% 56% 71% 70% 65% 88% 75% 77% 86% 92% 59%
Avg Max Decline 6.58% 7.04% 7.24% 6.93% 5.31% 6.04% 6.56% 5.94% 7.41% 5.74% 7.52%
Max Decline 16.86% 15.11% 17.31% 25.84% 20.52% 12.71% 15.82% 18.62% 12.47% 13.18% 33.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 16 14 16 19 17 21 21 18 13 11
Avg Max Increase -1.96% -1.91% -1.73% -1.37% -1.83% -1.67% -2.46% -3.62% -2.23% -2.72% -2.72%
Max Increase -5.33% -7.23% -4.56% -4.55% -8.23% -5.73% -6.17% -9.76% -7.68% -7.87% -20.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 10 5 7 10 7 13 14 10 11 4
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes No   Yes No Yes   Not Yet
High 350.00 380.00 352.00 332.50 323.50 323.00 328.50 315.00 296.50 345.75 339.50
Low 329.00 339.00 319.50 310.50 298.50 302.00 303.00 279.00 279.50 279.00 294.50
Close/Last 349.75 352.00 329.00 321.50 301.50 310.50 304.75 289.00 282.75 324.25 301.75