MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		13	23	23	27	25	19	20	24	15	19	19
Exceeded High		8	19	15	21	14	13	14	19	9	14	11
Scenario Percentage		62%	83%	65%	78%	56%	68%	70%	79%	60%	74%	58%
Avg Max Increase		11.20%	13.96%	10.23%	7.36%	7.64%	10.57%	12.33%	9.18%	12.83%	10.25%	6.00%
Max Increase		21.60%	57.45%	24.15%	16.30%	22.32%	28.56%	51.12%	42.73%	44.48%	43.62%	13.84%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	20	13	15	14	17	16	16	16	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.47%	-2.83%	-2.44%	-1.93%	-2.96%	-3.71%	-3.17%	-2.50%	-4.00%	-3.43%	-1.66%
Max Decline		-6.03%	-12.75%	-9.58%	-12.20%	-12.26%	-15.75%	-8.75%	-9.39%	-15.57%	-9.45%	-8.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	11	8	10	9	12	9	10	8	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			No				Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	21	22	18	20	26	24	21	30	26	25
Penetrated Low		25	19	15	14	17	24	18	18	23	20	13
Scenario Percentage		89%	90%	68%	78%	85%	92%	75%	86%	77%	77%	52%
Avg Max Decline		7.23%	8.36%	8.50%	10.12%	8.34%	8.74%	7.59%	8.00%	8.36%	7.47%	5.25%
Max Decline		15.21%	19.37%	36.51%	26.11%	18.08%	29.41%	24.92%	14.16%	19.71%	22.13%	12.50%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	18	13	17	15	19	19	20	17	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.22%	-3.75%	-2.52%	-2.55%	-2.61%	-2.49%	-3.12%	-3.60%	-2.51%	-3.14%	-0.67%
Max Increase		-8.15%	-17.37%	-11.49%	-7.48%	-8.76%	-8.10%	-8.22%	-8.68%	-7.61%	-11.86%	-6.68%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	10	7	9	5	11	10	12	10	6	1
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	518.75	567.25	609.75	536.00	495.00	481.50	461.75	454.75	472.00	499.50	518.50	515.50
Low	486.25	488.00	530.25	460.75	463.75	446.75	436.50	423.75	426.75	451.00	441.50	445.75
Close/Last	495.25	567.25	532.75	470.50	479.25	449.25	445.00	440.25	465.50	495.00	451.00	512.50