MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		35	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		21	24	26	22	25	18	19	19	19	22	26
Exceeded High		19	22	24	20	21	15	18	16	16	18	23
Scenario Percentage		90%	92%	92%	91%	84%	83%	95%	84%	84%	82%	88%
Avg Max Increase		6.01%	5.76%	6.87%	6.24%	5.34%	6.41%	4.76%	3.55%	5.84%	7.04%	3.28%
Max Increase		15.44%	17.48%	33.19%	16.79%	13.56%	20.82%	15.64%	11.05%	15.24%	16.53%	8.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	20	15	19	18	17	16	20	22	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.59%	-1.31%	-1.90%	-1.35%	-1.47%	-1.37%	-7.67%	-1.48%	-2.62%	-1.24%	-1.03%
Max Decline		-3.00%	-5.34%	-7.92%	-4.20%	-6.08%	-7.10%	-99.88%	-3.68%	-10.95%	-5.52%	-4.58%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	10	6	10	5	14	10	9	10	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		35	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		14	11	10	14	11	17	17	17	16	14	10
Penetrated Low		8	6	8	7	8	10	13	11	11	8	5
Scenario Percentage		57%	55%	80%	50%	73%	59%	76%	65%	69%	57%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.63%	7.89%	4.22%	5.78%	8.68%	13.16%	10.45%	17.11%	12.53%	7.71%	2.35%
Max Decline		23.24%	12.75%	8.19%	14.21%	27.57%	21.86%	23.80%	98.82%	46.76%	32.20%	3.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	12	18	18	17	18	18	18	13	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.70%	-1.09%	-0.87%	-1.57%	-1.44%	-1.28%	-1.41%	-1162.88%	-1.36%	-2.02%	-1.54%
Max Increase		-7.08%	-3.08%	-2.71%	-2.37%	-3.34%	-3.27%	-6.71%	-12762.48%	-3.49%	-4.35%	-7.28%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	7	5	13	12	7	6	13	9	8	4
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes
Action			No	Yes					Yes		Yes
High	6138.10	6413.20	6291.50	6258.30	6218.80	6312.90	6469.60	6505.30	6531.90	6547.00	6511.30	6217.90
Low	5914.50	6092.50	5699.30	5891.60	5815.80	5950.90	6229.20	6258.20	7.70	0.60	5746.80	5816.80
Close/Last	6092.50	6272.80	5994.20	5991.30	6040.20	6229.20	6311.10	6451.40	50.90	6529.20	5958.60	6053.90