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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Closed Higher 13 13 16 12 15 10 11 12 8 13 14
Exceeded High 12 11 15 11 12 9 10 10 7 11 13
Scenario Percentage 92% 85% 94% 92% 80% 90% 91% 83% 88% 85% 93%
Avg Max Increase 6.71% 5.97% 6.27% 7.41% 5.09% 6.29% 4.65% 2.34% 5.33% 7.43% 2.72%
Max Increase 15.44% 11.48% 22.43% 16.79% 11.15% 10.25% 8.96% 6.94% 15.24% 16.53% 6.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 18 22 18 18 20 16 17 17 22 16
Avg Max Decline -0.48% -0.23% -2.06% -1.27% -0.80% -0.83% -1.57% -1.38% -2.51% -1.19% -0.80%
Max Decline -3.00% -1.67% -7.92% -4.02% -2.59% -5.53% -4.02% -3.68% -10.95% -5.52% -3.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 3 12 6 7 4 10 13 3 9 4
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes     Yes No     Yes Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Closed Lower 7 7 5 9 6 10 10 9 13 8 7
Penetrated Low 5 4 5 4 4 5 8 7 9 4 7
Scenario Percentage 71% 57% 100% 44% 67% 50% 80% 78% 69% 50% 100%
Avg Max Decline 6.25% 6.33% 3.29% 5.78% 10.05% 15.41% 11.42% 8.50% 8.97% 3.78% 14.08%
Max Decline 9.71% 11.11% 6.21% 14.21% 27.57% 21.86% 23.80% 20.76% 32.94% 9.25% 30.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline 18 14 9 19 26 24 19 18 21 15 12
Avg Max Increase -0.71% -2.32% -0.68% -1.27% -1.71% -0.91% -1.82% -3.47% -1.68% -1.48% -4.53%
Max Increase -2.68% -3.08% -1.55% -2.09% -3.34% -1.96% -6.71% -10.04% -3.49% -2.07% -9.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase 3 9 7 8 18 7 9 14 14 12 25
2004 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes Yes      
Action     Yes Yes     Yes No      
High 1625.10 1633.70 1650.50 1655.20 1584.20 1632.10 1630.70 1541.40 1591.60 1624.30 1614.30
Low 1530.20 1556.10 1533.00 1548.80 1479.50 1560.30 1492.80 1448.30 1524.00 1551.30 1604.70
Close/Last 1582.70 1611.60 1611.50 1551.40 1575.70 1631.20 1539.40 1524.90 1576.10 1609.10 1613.80