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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Closed Higher 13 13 15 11 14 9 10 11 8 12 13
Exceeded High 12 11 14 10 11 8 9 9 7 10 12
Scenario Percentage 92% 85% 93% 91% 79% 89% 90% 82% 88% 83% 92%
Avg Max Increase 6.71% 5.97% 5.12% 6.47% 4.83% 5.79% 4.17% 1.83% 5.33% 7.39% 2.57%
Max Increase 15.44% 11.48% 15.09% 13.45% 11.15% 9.50% 8.91% 5.62% 15.24% 16.53% 6.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 18 21 20 19 19 16 16 17 21 15
Avg Max Decline -0.48% -0.23% -2.19% -1.27% -0.87% -0.77% -1.31% -1.31% -2.51% -1.21% -0.69%
Max Decline -3.00% -1.67% -7.92% -4.02% -2.59% -5.53% -4.02% -3.68% -10.95% -5.52% -3.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 3 12 7 8 4 10 11 3 8 3
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Closed Lower 6 6 5 9 6 10 10 9 12 8 7
Penetrated Low 4 3 5 4 4 5 8 7 9 4 7
Scenario Percentage 67% 50% 100% 44% 67% 50% 80% 78% 75% 50% 100%
Avg Max Decline 5.38% 6.24% 3.29% 5.78% 10.05% 15.41% 11.42% 8.50% 8.97% 3.78% 14.08%
Max Decline 7.37% 11.11% 6.21% 14.21% 27.57% 21.86% 23.80% 20.76% 32.94% 9.25% 30.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 15 9 19 26 24 19 18 21 15 12
Avg Max Increase -0.75% -2.68% -0.68% -1.27% -1.71% -0.91% -1.82% -3.47% -1.68% -1.48% -4.53%
Max Increase -2.68% -3.08% -1.55% -2.09% -3.34% -1.96% -6.71% -10.04% -3.49% -2.07% -9.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase 3 12 7 8 18 7 9 14 14 12 25
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes             Yes    
Action Yes Yes             No    
High 1093.10 1014.30 1021.00 1085.80 1198.70 1263.60 1295.20 1347.70 1396.40 1438.40 1475.30
Low 993.20 946.90 910.60 976.80 1067.60 1198.30 1206.30 1231.70 1318.40 1327.00 1415.00
Close/Last 1008.50 975.20 979.10 1081.90 1198.70 1222.40 1281.60 1345.10 1327.00 1429.30 1473.10