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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Closed Higher 17 10 17 16 19 18 19 17 17 21 19
Exceeded High 10 9 15 11 16 15 17 10 15 20 13
Scenario Percentage 59% 90% 88% 69% 84% 83% 89% 59% 88% 95% 68%
Avg Max Increase 3.73% 4.34% 5.67% 6.94% 5.82% 4.46% 4.96% 6.50% 6.01% 5.28% 4.30%
Max Increase 9.66% 7.43% 19.81% 14.27% 10.49% 9.82% 23.59% 13.93% 17.92% 12.13% 6.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 11 15 18 20 16 17 19 13 18 21
Avg Max Decline -1.22% -2.40% -1.05% -0.84% -1.33% -1.12% -1.18% -1.62% -1.47% -1.30% -1.09%
Max Decline -3.07% -12.42% -2.42% -1.78% -3.95% -3.57% -3.66% -6.64% -7.26% -3.89% -3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 9 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 7 4
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Closed Lower 15 24 16 18 15 16 15 16 16 13 15
Penetrated Low 10 15 11 13 11 9 10 10 11 6 10
Scenario Percentage 67% 63% 69% 72% 73% 56% 67% 63% 69% 46% 67%
Avg Max Decline 6.89% 6.73% 6.70% 5.21% 9.36% 9.13% 6.28% 5.53% 9.28% 7.72% 10.31%
Max Decline 14.76% 12.86% 20.21% 12.50% 35.33% 31.91% 17.93% 15.74% 24.45% 15.66% 22.30%
Avg Days To Max Decline 18 19 20 16 22 20 20 19 21 14 10
Avg Max Increase -0.61% -1.73% -1.18% -1.55% -1.83% -1.98% -2.31% -1.65% -2.66% -1.01% -2.51%
Max Increase -1.48% -3.94% -3.69% -4.27% -5.75% -5.38% -6.06% -3.26% -7.31% -2.39% -7.56%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 11 8 4 6 14 15 11 9 2 18
2004 Contract Condition       Yes              
Action       Yes              
High 274.20 278.40 281.90 283.50 277.00 281.70 285.10 290.60 296.50 314.60 314.90
Low 264.45 267.30 272.10 266.60 259.10 270.30 274.50 280.60 289.80 295.30 313.30
Close/Last 271.90 278.00 281.10 273.60 275.80 277.90 281.30 290.50 295.30 313.30 314.40