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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
Closed Higher 17 10 16 15 18 17 19 16 16 20 19
Exceeded High 10 9 14 10 15 15 17 9 14 19 13
Scenario Percentage 59% 90% 88% 67% 83% 88% 89% 56% 88% 95% 68%
Avg Max Increase 3.73% 4.34% 4.66% 6.21% 5.90% 4.46% 4.96% 6.48% 6.30% 5.25% 4.30%
Max Increase 9.66% 7.43% 14.52% 10.27% 10.49% 9.82% 23.59% 13.93% 17.92% 12.13% 6.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 11 14 17 20 16 17 21 14 18 21
Avg Max Decline -1.22% -2.40% -1.12% -0.75% -1.41% -1.12% -1.18% -1.76% -1.56% -1.17% -1.09%
Max Decline -3.07% -12.42% -2.42% -1.62% -3.95% -3.57% -3.66% -6.64% -7.26% -3.89% -3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 9 4 6 5 6 6 9 8 6 4
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action     Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
Closed Lower 14 23 16 18 15 16 14 16 16 13 14
Penetrated Low 9 15 11 13 11 9 9 10 11 6 10
Scenario Percentage 64% 65% 69% 72% 73% 56% 64% 63% 69% 46% 71%
Avg Max Decline 6.52% 6.73% 6.70% 5.21% 9.36% 9.13% 6.67% 5.53% 9.28% 7.72% 10.31%
Max Decline 14.76% 12.86% 20.21% 12.50% 35.33% 31.91% 17.93% 15.74% 24.45% 15.66% 22.30%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 19 20 16 22 20 22 19 21 14 10
Avg Max Increase -0.55% -1.73% -1.18% -1.55% -1.83% -1.98% -2.55% -1.65% -2.66% -1.01% -2.51%
Max Increase -1.48% -3.94% -3.69% -4.27% -5.75% -5.38% -6.06% -3.26% -7.31% -2.39% -7.56%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 11 8 4 6 14 17 11 9 2 18
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes         Yes       Yes
Action Yes No         Yes       Not Yet
High 231.30 210.10 210.90 225.60 249.20 256.99 251.60 240.50 252.00 255.60 255.60
Low 203.10 186.50 194.90 207.90 220.90 245.30 232.70 229.50 238.80 250.20 243.30
Close/Last 207.80 198.00 208.00 224.90 245.60 251.00 235.90 239.60 250.60 252.70 250.40