MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Oct 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Higher	13	11	13	14	11	11	10	12	7	11	14
Exceeded High	12	9	13	14	9	9	7	9	7	7	9
Scenario Percentage	92%	82%	100%	100%	82%	82%	70%	75%	100%	64%	64%
Avg Max Increase	7.18%	8.68%	6.93%	4.77%	5.87%	4.99%	7.27%	4.53%	4.90%	7.16%	2.92%
Max Increase	13.24%	18.78%	15.19%	11.71%	19.53%	14.68%	18.15%	9.23%	8.13%	12.98%	6.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase	26	18	17	18	16	16	15	15	24	19	15
Avg Max Decline	-3.24%	-0.76%	-1.39%	-1.26%	-1.55%	-1.21%	-1.72%	-2.24%	-1.94%	-1.00%	-0.56%
Max Decline	-7.22%	-4.84%	-5.33%	-4.85%	-6.76%	-6.50%	-3.54%	-4.94%	-3.48%	-3.96%	-3.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline	18	10	9	12	5	11	9	10	10	9	3
2004 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Lower	8	11	9	8	11	11	12	10	15	11	8
Penetrated Low	5	7	8	4	9	9	9	9	13	6	5
Scenario Percentage	63%	64%	89%	50%	82%	82%	75%	90%	87%	55%	63%
Avg Max Decline	12.78%	10.99%	6.45%	9.86%	7.25%	10.16%	11.17%	9.16%	9.69%	10.59%	18.51%
Max Decline	22.47%	22.34%	14.33%	11.71%	15.74%	26.28%	33.39%	23.85%	22.05%	20.46%	43.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	11	13	24	16	19	16	13	16	25	10
Avg Max Increase	-2.15%	-0.33%	-1.12%	-4.21%	-2.95%	-2.75%	-1.95%	-2.06%	-2.20%	-3.03%	-2.45%
Max Increase	-5.77%	-1.91%	-3.47%	-9.28%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-4.60%	-8.36%	-9.98%	-7.30%	-3.97%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	2	5	9	12	8	8	8	7	12	12
2004 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					No		Yes	No	Yes	Not Yet
High	11194	11069	11869	12196	11785	11888	11988	11280	11358	11410	10735
Low	10665	10299	11046	11624	10490	10964	11019	10546	10738	10575	10691
Close/Last	10784	11042	11715	11762	11236	11859	11326	11082	10824	10771	10735