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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 34 40 41 41 43 44 44 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 17 23 17 20 25 23 16 29 20 26 24
Exceeded High 16 18 12 16 21 19 12 24 16 19 10
Scenario Percentage 94% 78% 71% 80% 84% 83% 75% 83% 80% 73% 42%
Avg Max Increase 6.77% 6.03% 9.16% 17.70% 13.50% 10.00% 11.14% 9.89% 14.47% 11.24% 8.70%
Max Increase 23.28% 16.47% 30.82% 60.31% 36.09% 31.19% 29.58% 39.86% 31.35% 54.61% 36.51%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 17 16 18 13 15 16 16 15 11 8
Avg Max Decline -2.01% -2.24% -1.87% -1.65% -2.39% -2.08% -4.78% -1.56% -1.69% -2.06% -1.00%
Max Decline -7.74% -8.70% -4.80% -6.63% -21.10% -10.98% -13.58% -3.74% -5.46% -7.05% -4.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 12 14 6 9 8 12 9 4 7 1
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes  
Action Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 34 40 41 41 43 44 44 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 16 17 24 21 18 21 27 16 25 19 21
Penetrated Low 13 10 16 18 15 18 20 13 21 15 15
Scenario Percentage 81% 59% 67% 86% 83% 86% 74% 81% 84% 79% 71%
Avg Max Decline 6.02% 8.50% 5.13% 6.30% 6.41% 8.57% 5.27% 7.69% 5.89% 6.08% 14.24%
Max Decline 13.72% 25.08% 20.77% 13.77% 10.92% 27.18% 12.81% 32.73% 19.87% 21.72% 42.59%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 15 15 15 20 15 12 18 15 12 12
Avg Max Increase -1.26% -2.42% -1.91% -1.97% -4.65% -1.93% -1.20% -1.76% -2.06% -2.02% -1.90%
Max Increase -5.77% -7.61% -9.16% -9.66% -16.12% -12.96% -5.17% -7.05% -5.58% -7.41% -5.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase 4 7 9 7 15 6 6 5 11 4 3
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes       Yes
Action   Yes No     Yes No       Yes
High 159.30 160.00 157.50 164.50 176.50 179.50 168.00 189.50 205.40 256.50 256.00
Low 150.70 153.80 150.70 151.10 162.70 164.00 154.10 154.40 176.70 196.70 223.10
Close/Last 156.60 155.60 151.70 163.50 169.80 165.40 156.50 183.40 200.80 252.10 228.40