MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		42	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	22	21	23	22	23	23	21	18	26	16
Exceeded High		12	18	17	17	16	17	18	16	12	21	9
Scenario Percentage		63%	82%	81%	74%	73%	74%	78%	76%	67%	81%	56%
Avg Max Increase		9.46%	9.62%	10.02%	8.40%	12.04%	21.03%	15.77%	13.88%	12.45%	8.33%	7.61%
Max Increase		36.92%	30.69%	27.90%	17.59%	37.45%	69.21%	34.62%	30.92%	31.40%	20.35%	11.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	21	17	15	16	15	15	18	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.13%	-2.20%	-1.85%	-2.71%	-2.19%	-2.06%	-3.31%	-1.73%	-5.12%	-1.64%	-1.97%
Max Decline		-4.97%	-10.03%	-6.28%	-13.66%	-4.43%	-7.19%	-28.11%	-10.26%	-13.89%	-3.99%	-6.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	13	8	14	16	7	7	6	7	8	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No		Yes		Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		42	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	20	23	22	22	22	22	23	27	18	29
Penetrated Low		16	15	19	15	15	16	19	20	21	15	19
Scenario Percentage		70%	75%	83%	68%	68%	73%	86%	87%	78%	83%	66%
Avg Max Decline		5.66%	6.51%	6.87%	7.55%	6.24%	7.71%	8.22%	10.66%	8.35%	8.96%	4.56%
Max Decline		10.37%	12.65%	19.24%	26.14%	22.29%	14.96%	29.05%	29.14%	25.57%	32.20%	13.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	16	16	13	20	16	20	15	18	11	5
Avg Max Increase		-1.25%	-1.82%	-1.85%	-2.01%	-3.28%	-2.69%	-4.93%	-2.89%	-3.10%	-2.14%	-1.02%
Max Increase		-4.64%	-9.09%	-6.57%	-7.74%	-13.07%	-9.57%	-17.08%	-12.69%	-18.49%	-4.89%	-5.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	8	9	10	11	12	6	11	8	1
2017 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes
High	322.70	326.80	325.00	337.20	341.90	334.40	321.30	323.70	312.60	345.10	319.90	317.00
Low	301.30	307.70	309.40	309.30	324.70	310.40	308.90	300.50	294.30	312.30	293.50	293.20
Close/Last	315.40	318.00	314.50	327.10	331.10	311.40	316.10	301.40	309.30	322.60	296.50	311.50