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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 30 36 37 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 16 19 18 23 19 22 24 22 17 27 19
Exceeded High 10 14 13 20 14 16 19 19 13 22 13
Scenario Percentage 63% 74% 72% 87% 74% 73% 79% 86% 76% 81% 68%
Avg Max Increase 6.74% 7.98% 7.84% 6.01% 8.01% 18.81% 13.78% 9.95% 11.11% 7.98% 7.26%
Max Increase 16.81% 30.69% 24.03% 17.59% 29.43% 69.21% 34.62% 29.41% 31.40% 20.35% 11.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 20 20 16 15 21 13 17 14 13 8
Avg Max Decline -1.60% -1.80% -1.86% -2.41% -1.56% -1.01% -2.99% -2.61% -4.54% -1.75% -1.19%
Max Decline -4.97% -5.57% -6.28% -13.66% -4.43% -3.20% -28.11% -10.26% -13.89% -3.99% -5.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 11 6 12 13 6 7 12 9 9 1
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 30 36 37 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 14 16 19 18 23 22 20 20 26 16 25
Penetrated Low 11 12 16 12 14 17 17 18 18 12 18
Scenario Percentage 79% 75% 84% 67% 61% 77% 85% 90% 69% 75% 72%
Avg Max Decline 5.61% 5.75% 5.85% 7.42% 5.36% 6.76% 7.56% 8.96% 6.35% 8.13% 8.90%
Max Decline 10.37% 11.49% 13.83% 26.14% 22.29% 14.96% 29.05% 29.14% 15.41% 25.66% 41.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 16 17 14 17 16 20 15 16 13 12
Avg Max Increase -1.09% -1.88% -1.48% -2.21% -2.17% -2.04% -4.24% -1.76% -2.61% -1.80% -2.26%
Max Increase -4.64% -9.09% -6.30% -7.74% -13.07% -9.57% -17.08% -12.69% -18.49% -4.89% -18.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 8 7 7 7 7 14 7 12 7 -36
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes    
Action Yes     Yes No     Yes No    
High 158.00 156.50 160.30 162.00 158.70 165.80 179.00 180.50 169.00 189.80 205.20
Low 152.30 152.50 151.50 155.00 151.30 151.50 164.50 166.50 155.50 155.50 178.30
Close/Last 152.90 155.00 157.50 156.40 152.10 165.10 170.90 166.80 157.70 185.30 199.80