MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 27 36 40 40 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher 11 21 20 20 21 21 24 24 25 18 27
Exceeded High 9 13 14 14 19 17 17 18 20 11 16
Scenario Percentage 82% 62% 70% 70% 90% 81% 71% 75% 80% 61% 59%
Avg Max Increase 8.01% 5.17% 9.27% 7.54% 7.23% 8.36% 18.42% 14.44% 10.95% 12.56% 5.79%
Max Increase 16.31% 15.93% 49.29% 29.94% 18.70% 27.64% 71.36% 35.87% 28.74% 32.53% 12.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase 16 20 21 20 20 17 22 15 18 15 7
Avg Max Decline -1.49% -1.38% -1.24% -1.85% -3.14% -2.05% -1.15% -3.21% -2.58% -2.10% -1.05%
Max Decline -10.00% -3.90% -2.62% -6.67% -19.11% -5.16% -3.19% -30.86% -11.05% -5.69% -3.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 4 8 6 15 17 9 8 11 8 2
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes   Yes No     Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 27 36 40 40 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower 16 14 18 20 21 21 19 19 18 25 16
Penetrated Low 12 11 11 18 16 12 17 17 16 19 11
Scenario Percentage 75% 79% 61% 90% 76% 57% 89% 89% 89% 76% 69%
Avg Max Decline 4.28% 5.04% 8.67% 6.04% 6.61% 5.86% 5.59% 8.83% 9.69% 7.28% 10.40%
Max Decline 10.71% 10.98% 25.53% 14.34% 27.30% 24.52% 14.98% 34.20% 33.18% 41.44% 25.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 13 18 19 14 14 17 20 15 9 15
Avg Max Increase -1.43% -1.13% -1.49% -1.87% -1.87% -1.20% -2.87% -4.34% -1.62% -1.45% -1.45%
Max Increase -4.58% -4.50% -7.89% -4.97% -8.16% -6.64% -9.68% -15.61% -11.47% -7.38% -9.38%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 8 6 10 8 6 8 14 8 5 4
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes       Yes     Yes Yes  
Action Yes Yes       No     Yes Yes  
High 170.50 162.60 160.50 164.90 168.00 165.40 179.80 191.50 190.10 182.00 201.30
Low 160.00 157.00 156.00 155.00 158.80 157.80 158.50 175.50 178.80 163.00 159.00
Close/Last 161.60 157.80 159.10 162.00 164.50 159.00 178.70 182.70 180.60 163.40 201.10