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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 28 39 40 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 14 19 23 19 21 19 24 23 24 24 17
Exceeded High 10 16 13 13 15 17 19 16 18 17 6
Scenario Percentage 71% 84% 57% 68% 71% 89% 79% 70% 75% 71% 35%
Avg Max Increase 10.26% 8.00% 9.45% 11.33% 9.48% 10.36% 9.13% 20.49% 14.56% 9.60% 8.71%
Max Increase 18.47% 38.22% 42.68% 48.61% 28.48% 35.17% 25.53% 86.01% 37.46% 21.51% 23.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 19 19 22 18 20 17 20 16 12 9
Avg Max Decline -0.94% -1.72% -1.23% -1.54% -1.96% -2.83% -1.54% -1.08% -1.40% -1.24% -6.13%
Max Decline -3.19% -9.99% -5.09% -4.98% -7.12% -19.86% -4.98% -3.25% -6.22% -9.50% -31.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 8 6 8 6 10 9 9 6 5 4
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes    
Action No     Yes Yes Yes   Yes No    
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 28 39 40 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 13 20 17 23 22 25 20 21 20 19 27
Penetrated Low 12 14 12 15 21 20 12 16 18 17 20
Scenario Percentage 92% 70% 71% 65% 95% 80% 60% 76% 90% 89% 74%
Avg Max Decline 5.84% 6.04% 7.91% 8.70% 5.72% 6.57% 6.28% 5.88% 9.43% 10.93% 10.31%
Max Decline 17.88% 18.62% 29.20% 27.35% 15.00% 29.32% 25.16% 15.00% 41.12% 35.61% 38.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline 14 15 16 18 18 16 15 19 17 10 9
Avg Max Increase -1.31% -2.33% -1.77% -1.97% -1.82% -2.19% -1.24% -3.84% -2.53% -1.65% -2.23%
Max Increase -5.00% -6.86% -4.21% -9.70% -5.37% -8.30% -4.48% -9.99% -11.88% -12.89% -19.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 11 9 5 8 8 6 10 10 5 3
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes     Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes       No     Yes Yes
High 181.30 173.50 166.20 164.50 168.30 173.80 170.60 190.00 198.80 196.50 189.50
Low 166.50 163.20 159.70 158.50 156.90 161.80 163.30 165.50 183.50 184.40 167.60
Close/Last 170.50 165.20 161.50 162.40 164.90 168.30 165.60 188.10 188.60 187.90 168.80