MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Feb 28, 2005
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 33 40 42 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 17 17 27 20 23 23 22 24 18 24 25
Exceeded High 13 10 20 16 19 14 16 17 17 17 13
Scenario Percentage 76% 59% 74% 80% 83% 61% 73% 71% 94% 71% 52%
Avg Max Increase 13.42% 11.34% 9.12% 10.73% 8.07% 9.36% 11.35% 11.19% 12.77% 8.04% 6.31%
Max Increase 37.18% 23.73% 31.71% 22.21% 40.91% 46.01% 47.72% 31.15% 36.71% 23.38% 21.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase 13 15 17 15 17 17 21 20 21 11 8
Avg Max Decline -0.50% -2.26% -1.12% -1.78% -2.76% -1.19% -1.74% -2.36% -3.56% -1.39% -0.70%
Max Decline -11.10% -12.10% -3.43% -5.13% -9.93% -5.35% -4.76% -8.08% -19.93% -5.37% -1.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline 4 7 7 6 9 6 6 8 11 8 2
2005 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes   Yes    
Action     Yes       Yes   Not Yet    
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 33 40 42 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 16 23 15 24 22 22 23 21 27 21 20
Penetrated Low 16 16 10 20 15 14 18 21 22 13 15
Scenario Percentage 100% 70% 67% 83% 68% 64% 78% 100% 81% 62% 75%
Avg Max Decline 8.27% 4.96% 7.07% 6.01% 6.86% 7.93% 8.70% 5.89% 7.01% 5.89% 5.33%
Max Decline 24.02% 13.91% 29.47% 17.87% 21.87% 31.95% 29.17% 16.21% 35.00% 30.37% 26.90%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 13 17 15 17 18 19 16 17 8 9
Avg Max Increase -3.36% -1.12% -1.63% -2.01% -2.22% -2.30% -2.23% -2.11% -2.34% -0.96% -2.15%
Max Increase -15.00% -5.08% -4.31% -5.82% -7.59% -7.92% -9.97% -5.73% -8.60% -3.77% -10.66%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 5 7 11 9 7 10 9 8 5 4
2005 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
Action Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
High 228.00 212.00 192.80 194.00 169.80 169.20 170.00 168.30 185.20    
Low 199.50 181.00 176.20 166.30 157.50 153.00 157.20 152.70 149.20    
Close/Last 203.50 181.30 187.30 166.40 160.00 159.70 165.00 153.00 184.10