MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Silver(CMX) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 37 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Higher 19 17 17 14 22 13 22 16 22 13 12
Exceeded High 13 12 9 13 14 8 15 8 13 9 9
Scenario Percentage 68% 71% 53% 93% 64% 62% 68% 50% 59% 69% 75%
Avg Max Increase 15.91% 6.39% 13.87% 10.81% 11.21% 12.04% 13.07% 27.23% 12.48% 9.08% 13.04%
Max Increase 55.78% 19.11% 56.94% 34.27% 26.63% 21.77% 81.86% 66.94% 33.62% 18.21% 36.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase 15 10 13 16 16 17 16 22 17 15 20
Avg Max Decline -1.40% -1.04% -2.30% -2.30% -2.26% -2.51% -2.38% -1.18% -2.91% -3.18% -0.83%
Max Decline -5.47% -5.55% -8.16% -9.35% -10.04% -5.43% -9.26% -4.23% -11.51% -11.30% -2.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 7 6 4 10 8 9 5 9 10 2
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 37 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Lower 18 22 22 25 17 26 16 22 17 25 25
Penetrated Low 13 17 18 20 13 17 11 14 14 19 20
Scenario Percentage 72% 77% 82% 80% 76% 65% 69% 64% 82% 76% 80%
Avg Max Decline 7.14% 10.52% 11.20% 9.90% 9.66% 6.45% 6.72% 8.58% 8.83% 7.69% 13.93%
Max Decline 17.23% 63.18% 46.17% 31.59% 24.95% 19.93% 14.94% 19.75% 24.84% 30.00% 66.33%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 18 18 22 12 17 22 18 21 11 10
Avg Max Increase -3.17% -2.42% -1.99% -3.01% -3.22% -2.34% -4.84% -2.43% -2.70% -2.73% -1.63%
Max Increase -7.38% -11.10% -7.41% -8.26% -8.57% -7.83% -30.65% -14.48% -8.88% -8.52% -6.12%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 10 4 9 8 10 11 12 18 8 5
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes         Yes  
Action   Yes No   Yes         Not Yet  
High 499.0 501.0 473.5 471.0 494.0 468.0 523.5 519.5 539.5 522.0 543.0
Low 478.0 454.0 438.0 439.5 454.0 446.0 458.5 484.0 497.0 474.5 492.0
Close/Last 491.4 462.9 450.5 468.2 456.2 458.7 512.8 513.2 514.2 506.5 535.5