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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for September Silver(CMX) as of Jun 30, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
42 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
| Closed Higher |
18 |
16 |
25 |
23 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
23 |
14 |
27 |
17 |
| Exceeded High |
14 |
13 |
20 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
9 |
20 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
78% |
81% |
80% |
74% |
68% |
67% |
88% |
65% |
64% |
74% |
47% |
| Avg Max Increase |
13.47% |
24.17% |
17.40% |
15.16% |
7.88% |
13.37% |
11.14% |
11.10% |
12.23% |
11.77% |
26.11% |
| Max Increase |
67.84% |
112.83% |
92.76% |
56.52% |
23.11% |
57.10% |
34.60% |
26.68% |
21.39% |
96.91% |
68.16% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
15 |
20 |
14 |
19 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
13 |
17 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.43% |
-0.15% |
-1.70% |
-1.78% |
-1.01% |
-2.07% |
-2.32% |
-2.70% |
-2.33% |
-2.34% |
-0.80% |
| Max Decline |
-9.87% |
-2.03% |
-9.37% |
-7.20% |
-5.58% |
-8.48% |
-9.33% |
-9.97% |
-5.42% |
-8.90% |
-4.32% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
6 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
No |
|
No |
|
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
42 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
| Closed Lower |
24 |
26 |
18 |
20 |
24 |
24 |
27 |
20 |
28 |
16 |
26 |
| Penetrated Low |
19 |
21 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
22 |
17 |
17 |
11 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
79% |
81% |
72% |
70% |
75% |
79% |
81% |
85% |
61% |
69% |
62% |
| Avg Max Decline |
7.13% |
7.94% |
9.21% |
6.74% |
10.47% |
10.90% |
9.58% |
9.01% |
6.70% |
6.54% |
18.52% |
| Max Decline |
23.28% |
33.27% |
24.57% |
17.34% |
63.79% |
45.68% |
31.67% |
25.07% |
19.88% |
15.45% |
58.17% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
12 |
17 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-2.87% |
-2.09% |
-2.68% |
-2.87% |
-2.40% |
-1.94% |
-2.92% |
-2.54% |
-2.55% |
-1.44% |
-3.08% |
| Max Increase |
-13.07% |
-8.56% |
-8.76% |
-7.44% |
-11.11% |
-7.59% |
-8.61% |
-9.01% |
-7.80% |
-10.95% |
-9.44% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
13 |
19 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
13 |
6 |
11 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
| High |
1269.7 |
1449.1 |
1462.0 |
1393.0 |
1507.5 |
1390.0 |
1435.2 |
1379.0 |
1399.0 |
|
|
| Low |
1114.7 |
1291.1 |
1282.9 |
1257.1 |
1372.0 |
1297.7 |
1358.1 |
1291.0 |
1227.0 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
1269.7 |
1449.1 |
1327.5 |
1392.5 |
1447.7 |
1369.7 |
1370.4 |
1360.2 |
1247.3 |
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