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ScenarioSM Study for July Silver(CMX) as of Dec 31, 2010 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 18 | 26 | 19 | 19 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 16 | 25 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 11 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 61% | 69% | 79% | 84% | 88% | 76% | 64% | 63% | 88% | 68% | 65% | |
Avg Max Increase | 21.54% | 12.09% | 14.59% | 21.76% | 18.80% | 16.27% | 9.04% | 14.60% | 9.37% | 9.80% | 9.68% | |
Max Increase | 68.96% | 32.04% | 67.69% | 113.82% | 93.28% | 56.94% | 26.19% | 57.27% | 15.57% | 27.24% | 20.69% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 18 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 16 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.57% | -2.99% | -2.64% | -1.20% | -2.18% | -2.35% | -1.51% | -2.14% | -2.99% | -2.34% | -1.43% | |
Max Decline | -9.66% | -10.44% | -10.22% | -9.41% | -9.87% | -7.94% | -5.56% | -8.31% | -9.23% | -10.00% | -4.85% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 4 | |
2010 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.