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ScenarioSM Study for May Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 15 | 27 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 22 | 20 | 15 | |
Exceeded High | 11 | 21 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 13 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 73% | 78% | 60% | 69% | 70% | 84% | 91% | 78% | 59% | 65% | 73% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.10% | 13.37% | 21.26% | 12.36% | 15.72% | 21.89% | 20.82% | 15.61% | 11.19% | 14.96% | 8.46% | |
Max Increase | 22.00% | 80.59% | 68.28% | 34.53% | 67.55% | 114.83% | 93.80% | 57.31% | 47.31% | 57.48% | 13.70% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.59% | -3.38% | -1.47% | -2.92% | -2.89% | -1.29% | -2.88% | -2.98% | -1.99% | -2.09% | -2.83% | |
Max Decline | -6.77% | -12.99% | -10.63% | -11.70% | -10.51% | -9.71% | -14.81% | -14.63% | -5.30% | -6.31% | -8.88% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 4 | |
2015 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.