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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   15 27 20 26 20 19 23 27 22 20 15
Exceeded High   11 21 12 18 14 16 21 21 13 13 11
Scenario Percentage   73% 78% 60% 69% 70% 84% 91% 78% 59% 65% 73%
Avg Max Increase   10.10% 13.37% 21.26% 12.36% 15.72% 21.89% 20.82% 15.61% 11.19% 14.96% 8.46%
Max Increase   22.00% 80.59% 68.28% 34.53% 67.55% 114.83% 93.80% 57.31% 47.31% 57.48% 13.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 18 17 17 14 17 15 18 12 13 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.59% -3.38% -1.47% -2.92% -2.89% -1.29% -2.88% -2.98% -1.99% -2.09% -2.83%
Max Decline   -6.77% -12.99% -10.63% -11.70% -10.51% -9.71% -14.81% -14.63% -5.30% -6.31% -8.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 11 4 6 6 5 10 7 6 10 4
2015 Contract Condition   Yes           Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes           Yes No   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   30 18 25 19 25 26 22 18 23 25 30
Penetrated Low   20 13 16 16 18 21 16 10 16 20 19
Scenario Percentage   67% 72% 64% 84% 72% 81% 73% 56% 70% 80% 63%
Avg Max Decline   6.32% 6.62% 10.80% 10.96% 8.69% 9.09% 9.34% 8.85% 12.32% 11.62% 6.63%
Max Decline   19.34% 17.34% 37.73% 30.41% 24.05% 33.72% 24.91% 17.40% 64.63% 43.31% 17.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 21 20 19 12 17 19 17 17 16 15
Avg Max Increase   -2.34% -4.42% -1.98% -3.09% -3.12% -3.13% -4.03% -4.30% -2.92% -2.65% -2.04%
Max Increase   -7.63% -29.85% -15.43% -8.58% -7.99% -9.77% -12.06% -6.78% -11.28% -8.43% -10.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 9 12 13 9 9 18 13 11 6 4
2015 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Not Yet
High 1990.6 2131.0 2169.5 2057.0 1961.5 1765.5 1674.5 1730.5 1853.5 1778.0 1740.5 1731.0
Low 1883.6 1889.5 2056.2 1947.5 1700.0 1596.0 1529.5 1470.5 1557.0 1608.5 1526.0 1555.0
Close/Last 1883.6 2119.8 2056.6 1958.3 1711.9 1618.9 1558.3 1563.2 1724.8 1655.8 1659.8 1612.4

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