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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 23 15 26 20 27 20 17 21 28 22
Exceeded High   14 17 12 20 14 18 12 14 19 21 12
Scenario Percentage   82% 74% 80% 77% 70% 67% 60% 82% 90% 75% 55%
Avg Max Increase   8.18% 10.02% 9.45% 14.74% 20.26% 12.52% 17.46% 23.61% 21.19% 14.44% 6.90%
Max Increase   14.78% 27.27% 19.77% 81.96% 67.95% 34.44% 67.34% 115.36% 95.03% 58.37% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 13 15 16 15 17 15 17 17 18 14
Avg Max Decline   -2.82% -2.31% -1.53% -3.72% -1.75% -3.15% -3.46% -1.71% -3.22% -2.87% -1.50%
Max Decline   -10.75% -9.91% -7.22% -13.99% -10.68% -11.59% -10.90% -10.80% -14.99% -14.24% -3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 9 7 9 4 6 5 4 11 7 3
2018 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes  
Action     Yes   Yes Yes   No   Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   28 22 30 19 25 18 25 28 24 17 23
Penetrated Low   22 18 20 14 14 14 18 24 16 10 17
Scenario Percentage   79% 82% 67% 74% 56% 78% 72% 86% 67% 59% 74%
Avg Max Decline   9.93% 10.11% 7.06% 6.71% 11.88% 11.05% 9.53% 8.47% 9.42% 8.29% 7.06%
Max Decline   31.14% 25.10% 19.78% 17.69% 38.41% 31.24% 24.69% 33.78% 24.57% 17.27% 57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 13 16 20 20 23 13 16 19 11 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.50% -2.91% -2.78% -4.04% -2.86% -4.32% -3.66% -2.98% -4.13% -4.11% -1.96%
Max Increase   -9.64% -8.54% -8.28% -30.43% -14.94% -12.66% -8.49% -9.95% -12.35% -6.52% -8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 6 12 10 13 18 10 7 17 9 3
2018 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes     Yes
Action   Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes     Yes
High 1881.9 1888.5 1773.0 1799.0 1706.0 1784.0 1837.5 1759.0 1748.5 1717.5 1770.5 1737.5
Low 1723.0 1754.5 1633.5 1650.0 1522.5 1629.5 1674.0 1643.5 1634.5 1563.5 1673.5 1613.0
Close/Last 1859.8 1755.1 1768.1 1683.8 1698.4 1766.7 1677.1 1679.0 1647.4 1714.5 1724.1 1632.4

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