MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Rough Rice(MCE) as of Sep 24, 2001
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	6	8	11	12	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Closed Higher	1	6	5	4	7	7	7	7	5	6	3
Exceeded High	1	4	4	3	6	6	6	5	3	4	2
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	80%	75%	86%	86%	86%	71%	60%	67%	67%
Avg Max Increase	2.00%	9.89%	5.87%	7.34%	6.02%	10.38%	9.12%	6.02%	4.94%	21.18%	20.69%
Max Increase	2.00%	25.44%	11.44%	10.64%	15.40%	22.62%	22.02%	6.98%	9.29%	65.96%	39.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	19	21	22	14	11	14	17	7	10	15
Avg Max Decline	-0.30%	-2.03%	-2.90%	-1.75%	-0.32%	-1.20%	-1.69%	-1.94%	-1.80%	-2.72%	-1.69%
Max Decline	-0.30%	-7.69%	-4.42%	-3.79%	-2.50%	-3.59%	-5.28%	-4.45%	-3.54%	-9.44%	-1.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline	4	5	27	9	12	4	4	12	6	4	5
2001 Contract Condition					Yes
Action					Yes

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	6	8	11	12	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Closed Lower	5	2	6	8	8	8	8	7	10	9	12
Penetrated Low	3	2	5	7	7	7	8	6	9	7	7
Scenario Percentage	60%	100%	83%	88%	88%	88%	100%	86%	90%	78%	58%
Avg Max Decline	5.26%	5.04%	10.28%	8.83%	8.47%	12.16%	8.02%	8.39%	8.55%	11.14%	5.76%
Max Decline	7.41%	8.82%	19.93%	16.67%	21.93%	28.05%	17.64%	15.60%	25.86%	23.73%	20.37%
Avg Days To Max Decline	11	21	20	19	24	15	17	16	17	14	13
Avg Max Increase	0.38%	-0.11%	-1.29%	-1.88%	-2.26%	-2.75%	-3.76%	-2.56%	-3.01%	-1.42%	-4.14%
Max Increase	0.00%	-0.23%	-2.94%	-6.50%	-6.00%	-6.49%	-11.65%	-8.42%	-6.41%	-4.63%	-11.75%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	1	6	12	11	8	25	11	10	2	7
2001 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High		7.15	6.78	6.65	6.19	6.20	5.75	5.60	5.83	5.49	4.95
Low		6.78	6.42	6.00	5.93	5.44	5.40	5.25	5.10	4.88	3.90
Close/Last		6.78	6.46	6.05	6.18	5.52	5.48	5.42	5.26	4.93	3.98