MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Rough Rice(CBOT) as of May 31, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	1	7	8	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Closed Higher		4	4	4	6	6	2	4	6	7	4
Exceeded High		3	3	2	4	2	2	3	5	6	3
Scenario Percentage		75%	75%	50%	67%	33%	100%	75%	83%	86%	75%
Avg Max Increase		4.75%	3.15%	16.74%	11.34%	3.35%	5.78%	13.75%	15.23%	8.51%	5.96%
Max Increase		6.99%	5.17%	17.80%	14.36%	4.05%	9.55%	24.65%	24.53%	22.37%	9.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase		8	8	25	16	20	13	19	11	13	17
Avg Max Decline		0.30%	-1.61%	-0.55%	-1.75%	-1.72%	-1.59%	-2.21%	-2.55%	-1.49%	-0.85%
Max Decline		-0.35%	-5.11%	-0.84%	-4.62%	-2.98%	-3.95%	-3.46%	-6.82%	-3.76%	-1.80%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	11	1	3	18	6	9	4	4	1
2002 Contract Condition				Yes						Yes
Action				No

Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	1	7	8	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Closed Lower	1	3	4	7	6	6	10	8	6	5	8
Penetrated Low		3	3	7	5	5	8	7	6	4	4
Scenario Percentage	0%	100%	75%	100%	83%	83%	80%	88%	100%	80%	50%
Avg Max Decline		4.48%	8.48%	5.91%	12.66%	14.86%	9.65%	11.09%	10.31%	7.37%	7.55%
Max Decline		5.72%	10.39%	11.08%	22.56%	18.76%	19.56%	30.58%	21.10%	16.94%	15.80%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	19	22	18	23	14	12	9	22
Avg Max Increase		0.47%	-1.31%	-1.57%	-2.19%	-1.89%	-3.40%	-2.90%	-3.01%	-2.40%	-5.63%
Max Increase		-1.38%	-1.86%	-6.55%	-5.08%	-5.96%	-7.38%	-7.47%	-5.95%	-11.68%	-7.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	12	11	9	8	8	9	22	4	7
2002 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	5.93	5.21	5.00	4.87	4.81	4.51	4.17	4.11	4.01	4.25
Low	5.06	4.79	4.46	4.36	4.37	4.15	3.95	3.85	3.74	3.61
Close/Last	5.09	4.97	4.51	4.66	4.38	4.15	3.98	3.95	3.76	4.21