MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Rough Rice(CBOT) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	7	12	15	15	17	17	17	18	18	18	18
Closed Higher	3	7	2	6	8	8	8	10	6	8	10
Exceeded High	2	6	1	5	5	5	6	4	5	6	7
Scenario Percentage	67%	86%	50%	83%	63%	63%	75%	40%	83%	75%	70%
Avg Max Increase	22.84%	18.33%	86.56%	10.56%	8.52%	16.08%	12.56%	5.74%	18.52%	17.55%	6.55%
Max Increase	29.20%	69.00%	86.56%	30.43%	19.09%	32.30%	22.36%	12.50%	42.59%	32.42%	14.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase	13	20	19	12	7	20	16	21	22	12	11
Avg Max Decline	-2.56%	-2.10%	-0.80%	0.14%	-1.38%	-3.72%	-1.66%	-1.77%	-1.18%	-1.22%	-2.09%
Max Decline	-2.60%	-7.28%	-0.80%	-1.34%	-4.09%	-10.06%	-5.26%	-4.19%	-4.21%	-4.02%	-5.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline	12	10	1	2	3	10	3	14	4	8	2
2004 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	7	12	15	15	17	17	17	18	18	18	18
Closed Lower	4	5	13	9	9	9	9	8	12	10	7
Penetrated Low	2	5	9	9	8	9	6	7	10	8	5
Scenario Percentage	50%	100%	69%	100%	89%	100%	67%	88%	83%	80%	71%
Avg Max Decline	5.86%	10.09%	8.19%	7.50%	6.68%	6.40%	12.37%	12.76%	8.75%	9.65%	6.73%
Max Decline	6.64%	20.21%	15.80%	16.09%	10.48%	11.70%	22.81%	19.07%	19.01%	35.58%	15.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	18	22	19	16	20	23	19	22	9	7
Avg Max Increase	-3.69%	-1.89%	-2.55%	-0.89%	-1.43%	-1.36%	-2.29%	-1.47%	-3.70%	-2.73%	-1.50%
Max Increase	-10.16%	-5.05%	-6.62%	-2.95%	-6.09%	-6.32%	-4.83%	-6.17%	-8.21%	-8.15%	-2.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase	14	12	10	4	6	9	9	7	8	7	2
2004 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes
Action				Yes				Yes
High	7.18	8.03	8.34	7.99	7.99	8.60	9.10	9.35	9.30	10.42	11.30
Low	6.81	6.98	7.86	7.68	7.35	7.89	8.44	8.04	7.74	9.20	9.48
Close/Last	7.16	7.80	7.97	7.84	7.99	8.60	8.87	8.25	9.18	9.45	11.30