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ScenarioSM Study for March Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2011 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 16 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | |
Closed Higher | 9 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 8 | |
Exceeded High | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | |
Scenario Percentage | 67% | 86% | 50% | 82% | 78% | 92% | 73% | 77% | 77% | 46% | 63% | |
Avg Max Increase | 3.80% | 6.40% | 6.77% | 15.28% | 21.36% | 15.53% | 8.58% | 11.68% | 12.84% | 9.37% | 7.84% | |
Max Increase | 8.60% | 11.03% | 18.05% | 70.33% | 85.48% | 73.40% | 19.52% | 32.41% | 24.77% | 31.92% | 13.50% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 23 | 9 | 20 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 10 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.36% | -2.81% | -1.89% | -3.45% | -2.86% | -1.38% | -1.86% | -2.83% | -2.14% | -1.45% | -0.33% | |
Max Decline | -4.66% | -5.62% | -3.65% | -8.48% | -6.86% | -5.30% | -6.17% | -10.08% | -6.22% | -4.51% | -1.77% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 4 | |
2011 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.