MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 13 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | |
| Closed Higher | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 7 | |
| Exceeded High | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 71% | 83% | 57% | 78% | 67% | 91% | 67% | 75% | 82% | 42% | 71% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 4.06% | 5.48% | 6.77% | 17.11% | 26.98% | 15.02% | 9.02% | 12.49% | 12.68% | 10.17% | 7.84% | |
| Max Increase | 8.60% | 10.04% | 18.05% | 70.33% | 85.48% | 73.40% | 19.52% | 32.41% | 24.77% | 31.92% | 13.50% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 21 | 9 | 22 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 10 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.09% | -2.82% | -1.89% | -3.51% | -2.31% | -0.99% | -1.43% | -3.07% | -1.74% | -1.35% | -0.33% | |
| Max Decline | -4.66% | -5.62% | -3.65% | -8.48% | -5.18% | -3.92% | -4.03% | -10.08% | -6.22% | -4.51% | -1.77% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 4 | |
| 2008 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
