|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for November Gasoline(NYMEX) as of Jun 30, 2008 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
| Tested Years |
13 |
15 |
17 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
| Closed Higher |
7 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
16 |
10 |
10 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
10 |
| Exceeded High |
6 |
6 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
9 |
|
| Scenario Percentage |
86% |
86% |
100% |
94% |
81% |
80% |
100% |
87% |
100% |
69% |
0% |
| Avg Max Increase |
7.32% |
10.82% |
10.59% |
9.10% |
6.54% |
6.98% |
12.14% |
16.17% |
11.44% |
9.59% |
|
| Max Increase |
17.16% |
21.12% |
21.93% |
20.23% |
17.99% |
12.38% |
39.71% |
71.91% |
29.31% |
15.62% |
|
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
15 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
21 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
|
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.59% |
-2.10% |
-0.92% |
-3.04% |
-2.24% |
-2.44% |
-2.12% |
-2.19% |
-4.24% |
-2.14% |
|
| Max Decline |
-3.88% |
-5.37% |
-5.17% |
-9.73% |
-9.50% |
-6.04% |
-10.60% |
-9.62% |
-14.50% |
-4.54% |
|
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
17 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
4 |
|
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
| Tested Years |
13 |
15 |
17 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
| Closed Lower |
6 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
12 |
13 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
| Penetrated Low |
3 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
13 |
| Scenario Percentage |
50% |
63% |
17% |
60% |
50% |
67% |
69% |
63% |
43% |
70% |
100% |
| Avg Max Decline |
15.59% |
7.20% |
8.40% |
6.51% |
6.33% |
9.41% |
6.93% |
7.89% |
14.00% |
9.07% |
100.00% |
| Max Decline |
26.63% |
10.55% |
8.40% |
9.60% |
7.80% |
15.05% |
17.36% |
17.39% |
23.28% |
15.34% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
19 |
17 |
17 |
21 |
21 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
1 |
| Avg Max Increase |
0.48% |
-0.91% |
0.33% |
-0.27% |
-4.03% |
-0.48% |
-1.77% |
-5.23% |
-0.88% |
-3.03% |
100.00% |
| Max Increase |
-2.00% |
-3.39% |
0.33% |
-1.88% |
-6.96% |
-1.32% |
-7.83% |
-19.85% |
-2.44% |
-6.24% |
100.00% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
7 |
5 |
2 |
16 |
12 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
No |
|
No |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| High |
237.45 |
242.49 |
250.32 |
256.35 |
281.09 |
326.78 |
344.26 |
|
|
|
|
| Low |
217.74 |
217.20 |
219.92 |
235.25 |
241.10 |
261.46 |
293.63 |
|
|
|
|
| Close/Last |
234.08 |
229.27 |
248.69 |
242.46 |
267.73 |
308.92 |
338.46 |
|
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