MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for October RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2010 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | |||||||||||
| Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
| Tested Years | 5 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Closed Higher | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| Exceeded High | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 83% | 88% | 89% | 92% | 100% | 72% | 85% | 100% | 94% | 81% |
| Avg Max Increase | 8.68% | 11.19% | 7.37% | 10.29% | 12.57% | 10.29% | 11.39% | 7.97% | 12.82% | 18.22% | 9.87% |
| Max Increase | 10.38% | 20.39% | 16.69% | 21.39% | 23.01% | 29.75% | 39.07% | 13.59% | 55.16% | 77.28% | 23.35% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 28 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.30% | -0.42% | -1.26% | -3.55% | -1.56% | -2.79% | -1.86% | -3.08% | -3.93% | -2.14% | -1.05% |
| Max Decline | -3.21% | -1.88% | -7.27% | -16.80% | -6.42% | -9.22% | -9.97% | -6.60% | -16.43% | -11.37% | -5.49% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 30 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 4 |
| 2009 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
